10-Year Treasury Yield US10Y · Forecast & Analysis
Heads-up: USD Core PPI m/m, PPI m/m came in worse than expected for USD (31 h ago).
The picture is bullish: October's hot CPI and hawkish Fed talk have markets pricing a near-certain December hike, lifting US10Y to a three-week high near 5.15%. With no price history available, this verdict rests on the news flow alone.
News situation · 145 items / 30 D
3 of 145 straight from the issuer or regulator
Outlook for 10-Year Treasury Yield
Direction, typical moves and upcoming dates from our own price, news and calendar data, recalculated on every visit. An assessment, not investment advice.
No price statement: there is no price data for this asset. Based on 145 news items.
What drives it
- October core CPI hit +0.30% versus +0.2% expected, the fastest three-month annualised pace since April 2024.
- Fed speakers including Waller back a December hike and have even floated a larger 50-basis-point move.
- Markets now assign roughly 90% odds to a December hike, with further Fed moves priced into 2027.
- The yield sits at a three-week high near 5.13%, holding around 5.15% after the inflation surprise.
What argues against it
- Yields at a three-week high may already have priced in the CPI surprise, limiting further repricing.
- Fresh PPI undershot expectations, hinting producer-price pressure is cooling and tempering the hawkish case.
- Crude oil is down 15% from late-October highs, easing cost-push inflation pressure on future rate decisions.
What would change the picture
- Retail sales, the Philadelphia Fed index and consumer sentiment in coming days could shift rate expectations.
- Stronger releases ahead could firm the case for a 50-basis-point December hike and lift yields further.
- Softer inflation data ahead could prompt investors to reassess the hawkish Fed view and pull yields back.
Coming up
- US: Retail sales · expected 0.7%, previous 0.9%
- US: EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change · expected -0.309M, previous 4.657M
- US: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, Jobless claims · expected 32.2, previous 20.9
Economic data for US10Y
Full calendarRecently released
- November 13, 2026USDCore PPI m/m●●●Actual 0.3%Forecast 0.4%Previous 0.8%
- November 13, 2026USDPPI m/m●●●Actual 0.3%Forecast 0.4%Previous 1.4%
- November 12, 2026USDEIA Crude Oil Stocks Change●●●Actual 4.657MForecast -2.489MPrevious -0.865M
- November 12, 2026USDInitial Jobless Claims●●●
Coming up
- November 17, 2026USDCore Retail Sales m/m●●●Forecast 0.7%Previous 0.9%in 2 days
- November 17, 2026USDRetail Sales m/m●●●Forecast 0.3%Previous 0.8%in 2 days
- November 18, 2026USDEIA Crude Oil Stocks Change●●●Forecast -0.309MPrevious 4.657Min 3 days
- November 19, 2026USDPhiladelphia Fed Manufacturing Index●●●Forecast 32.2Previous 20.9in 4 days
- November 19, 2026USDInitial Jobless Claims●●●in 4 days
- November 20, 2026USDMichigan Consumer Sentiment●●●Forecast 51.0Previous 51.0in 5 days
All times UTC. Assessed against the consensus forecast, otherwise against the previous value.
Both worlds over time
One dot per day and source, 30 days. Height = net direction of the day.
What is being reported about US10Y
Frequently asked questions about 10-Year Treasury Yield
Why does hot inflation push the 10-Year Treasury Yield up?
When inflation runs hotter than expected, markets expect the Fed to raise rates to cool it. Higher expected policy rates make newly issued bonds more attractive, so existing bonds are sold until their yields rise. October's CPI beat plus hawkish Fed comments moved December hike odds to around 90%, which is that mechanism at work right now.
PPI came in soft. Does that undo the CPI story?
It is a genuine counterpoint but not a reversal. PPI measures prices further up the production pipeline than CPI, and the latest reading landed below forecasts, which eases some inflation worry. Still, the December hike pricing was built on the CPI beat and firm core PCE projections, so one soft PPI print tempers rather than overturns the hawkish picture.
What should I watch next on US10Y?
Retail sales, the Philadelphia Fed index, jobless claims and consumer sentiment all land in the coming days. Stronger figures would support the case for further Fed hikes and higher yields; weaker ones could pull back the recent repricing. It also matters whether the yield holds near its three-week high, since some analysts flag that much of the CPI surprise may already be priced in.
📝 Overview Generated automatically
US10Y has been the subject of 1011 signals across 1011 articles in the last 365 days. Sentiment skews Bearish (46%).
Breakdown: 403 bullish, 465 bearish, 143 neutral.
Most-cited catalysts: Rising inflation expectations (4×), Sticky inflation data (3×), Fed rate hike expectations (3×). Most-cited risk factors: Strong economic data pushing yields higher (5×), Unexpected dovish Fed pivot (4×), Dovish Fed surprise (3×).
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