USD/PLN Polish Zloty · Analysis & News

The news flow clearly leans toward a firmer dollar and a softer zloty, but a verdict needs more than one day of headlines. There is no established price trend in the pair yet, because its price history is still too short for a technical read on any horizon. On top of that, the dollar's rally followed a report that can be revised and comes just before US inflation data that could undo the hawkish repricing. Until the price picture and the next inflation print align with the news, the reading stays neutral rather than directional.

October nonfarm payrolls hit 165K against forecasts of roughly 56-65K, September was revised up to 60K, unemployment fell from 4.2% to 4.1% and average hourly earnings rose 0.4% on the month. That across-the-board strength pushed the odds of a December Fed hike to around 77% and lifted the dollar index from a five-week low near 101.2 to above 102. For USD/PLN this matters because higher US rates make the dollar more attractive relative to the zloty.

Poland's central bank left rates unchanged and Governor Glapinski explicitly ruled out a December hike, naming the first quarter as the earliest plausible move. The bank's new projections still show Polish inflation above 3.5% year on year in the first half of 2027, possibly near 5% if fuel tax relief lapses, and Commerzbank argues policy is staying too loose for the zloty's good. A tightening cycle starting earlier than expected, perhaps in the first quarter if second-round inflation effects appear, is the main thing that could change this.

First, US inflation data due in two days: a hotter-than-expected print would reinforce the case for a December Fed hike, while a soft one could unwind much of the dollar's recent gains. Jobless claims follow a couple of days later. Beyond that, watch for any sign the NBP might move sooner than the first quarter, and keep in mind that payroll figures are revised, sometimes materially, so the surprise behind the dollar's jump is not set in stone.