USD/JPY – 1H – COMPRA

COMPRA 3× ACTUALIZADO CLOSED

2026-08-04 08:00 UTC hace 46 días

⚠ Opened against the trend in 6 of 8 timeframes. Target hit 12.3 % vs 17.9 % average · stopped out 14.4 % vs 9.2 % (Forex, 146 closed runs). Not a reason to act — a reason to watch.

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Signal evolution

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 5× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 5× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (4 Aug 2026, 06:00 UTC, updated 3× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▲	STOCH OB Exit	indicator	2.16
▲	MACD Zero Cross Up	indicator	1.52
▲	BOP Zero Cross Up	indicator	1.39
▲	STOCHF KD Cross Up	indicator	1.31
▲	SMA Retreat Up	indicator	1.31
▲	Trendline Retreat Upcontinuation	trendline	1.17
▲	EMA Retreat Up	indicator	1.17
▲	HT TRENDLINE Retreat Up	indicator	1.16
▲	KAMA Retreat Up	indicator	1.09
▲	MIDPRICE Retreat Up	indicator	1.09
▲	MIDPOINT Retreat Up	indicator	1.07
▲	Fibonacci Retreat UpTrend (79%)continuation	fibonacci	1.03

Trend Context

15M

UPLateral / sin dirección

30M

UPLateral / sin dirección

DOWNTendencia formándose

DOWNTendencia muy fuerte

12H

DOWNTendencia sólida

Analysis

🎯 Conclusiones principales

Strong bullish momentum on the 1H, but higher timeframes (2H+) are bearish—this is likely a counter-trend bounce.
Key resistance at 160.872; a break above could signal a deeper reversal, but a rejection would favor the downtrend.
Support at 156.235 is critical; a break below would invalidate the bullish signal.
The dense cluster of bullish indicators (trendline, MACD, stochastic, etc.) suggests a high-probability short-term move up.

The 1H USD/JPY signal has fired a dense cluster of bullish indicators—Trendline Retreat Up, BOP Zero Cross Up, MACD Zero Cross Up, STOCH OB Exit, STOCHF KD Cross Up, EMA Retreat Up, HT TRENDLINE Retreat Up, and KAMA Retreat Up—along with additional signals from fibonacci, trendline, and indicator groups. This confluence suggests a strong short-term bounce is underway, with momentum shifting from bearish to bullish on the 1H timeframe. However, the higher timeframes (2H through 1D) remain firmly bearish, indicating that this is a counter-trend move within a larger downtrend. The 1H and lower timeframes are showing bullish momentum, but the 2H and above are still bearish, creating a conflict that traders should respect. The nearest resistance sits at 160.872, while support is at 156.235; a break above resistance would signal a stronger reversal, while a failure to hold above support would invalidate the bullish case.

The alignment across timeframes is mixed: the 15m and 30m are bullish but choppy, the 1H is turning bullish, but the 2H and higher are strongly bearish. This suggests the current bullish signal is likely a retracement within a larger downtrend. Traders should watch for the price to approach the 160.872 resistance; a rejection there would confirm the bearish trend, while a decisive break could signal a trend change. The very strong signal strength and high probability (100%) indicate that the immediate momentum is bullish, but the higher timeframe trend argues for caution. Key levels to monitor are the resistance at 160.872 and support at 156.235; a close below support would invalidate the bullish setup.

Catalizadores

▲ Multiple bullish signals fired simultaneously (Trendline Retreat Up, MACD Zero Cross Up, STOCH OB Exit, etc.) indicating strong momentum convergence.
▲ Lower timeframes (15m, 30m) are bullish, supporting the short-term upside.
▲ The price is likely bouncing off the lower trendline, a classic bullish setup.
▲ The signal strength is 'very strong' with a 100% probability, suggesting high conviction in the immediate move.

Factores de riesgo

▼ Higher timeframes (2H, 4H, 8H, 12H, 1D) are all bearish, which could cap the upside and resume the downtrend.
▼ The nearest resistance at 160.872 is a potential barrier; failure to break it could lead to a reversal.
▼ The 1H trend is still bearish (2/5) despite the bullish signals, so the move may be a retracement rather than a reversal.
▼ Watch for a break below support at 156.235, which would invalidate the bullish setup and signal a continuation lower.