USD/JPY – 30M – ACHAT
ACHAT 3× ACTUALISÉ CLOSED
il y a 46 jours
⚠ Opened against the trend in
all 8 timeframes.
Target hit 4.4 %
vs 17.9 % average ·
stopped out 14.4 %
vs 9.2 %
(Forex, 180 closed runs).
Not a reason to act — a reason to watch.
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Signal evolution
Conviction, candle by candle
conviction per candle
5× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads
Dropped below 35% 5× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.
Signals Fired
These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (4 Aug 2026, 12:30 UTC, updated 3× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
| Signals Fired | Category | Weight | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ | Triple Bottomcontinuation | chart_pattern | 4.06 |
| ▲ | Symmetrical Trianglecontinuation | chart_pattern | 3.86 |
| ▲ | Double Bottomcontinuation | chart_pattern | 3.65 |
| ▲ | Trendline Break Upcontinuation | trendline | 2.89 |
| ▼ | Trendline Break Downstate only | trendline | 2.77 |
| ▲ | STOCHF KD Cross Up | indicator | 1.73 |
| ▲ | BOP Zero Cross Up | indicator | 1.64 |
| ▲ | STOCH OS Exit | indicator | 1.42 |
| ▲ | SMA 50 Retreat Up | indicator | 1.38 |
| ▲ | Trendline Retreat Upcontinuation | trendline | 1.34 |
| ▲ | Fibonacci Retreat UpTrend (79%)state only | fibonacci | 1.26 |
| ▲ | DX Trend Strong | indicator | 1.23 |
| ▲ | WILLR OS Exit | indicator | 1.10 |
Trend Context
15MDOWNTendance naissante
30MDOWNSans direction
1HDOWNTendance naissante
2HDOWNTendance très forte
4HDOWNTendance très forte
8HDOWNTendance très forte
12HDOWNTendance solide
1DDOWNTendance solide
Analysis
🎯 Points clés
- A dense bullish pattern cluster (Double Bottom, Triple Bottom, Symmetrical Triangle) on the 30M chart suggests a potential short-term reversal.
- All timeframes are bearish, with very strong downtrends on 2H, 4H, and 8H, so this is a counter-trend signal.
- Key levels: resistance at 160.53100 and support at 156.23500; a break above resistance would confirm bullish momentum, while a break below support would invalidate the setup.
- The signal is very strong (93% probability) but should be treated as a bounce unless higher timeframes turn bullish.
The USD/JPY 30-minute signal has fired a dense cluster of bullish triggers — Trendline Break Up, Trendline Break Down, Trendline Retreat Up, Double Bottom, Triple Bottom, Symmetrical Triangle, BOP Zero Cross Up, and DX Trend Strong — alongside five additional signals. This confluence suggests a short-term reversal attempt within a broader bearish context. However, the higher timeframes (2H, 4H, 8H) are all in very strong downtrends, and the 15M, 30M, and 1H are also bearish, so the bullish signal is counter-trend on the higher timeframes. The immediate focus is on whether price can sustain a move above the nearest resistance at 160.53100, which would confirm the reversal. Support sits at 156.23500, a critical level that, if broken, would invalidate the bullish setup and likely resume the larger downtrend.
The pattern cluster — Double Bottom, Triple Bottom, and Symmetrical Triangle — points to a base-building phase, while the Trendline Break Up and Retreat Up indicate a shift in short-term momentum. The BOP Zero Cross Up and DX Trend Strong add weight to the bullish case on the 30M chart. Yet, the overwhelming bearish alignment across all timeframes argues that this is a corrective bounce rather than a trend reversal. Traders should watch for a decisive close above 160.53100 to signal that the bounce has legs, but should remain cautious given the strong higher-timeframe downtrends. If price fails at resistance and drops below 156.23500, the bullish signals would be negated, and the prevailing downtrend would likely reassert itself.
The pattern cluster — Double Bottom, Triple Bottom, and Symmetrical Triangle — points to a base-building phase, while the Trendline Break Up and Retreat Up indicate a shift in short-term momentum. The BOP Zero Cross Up and DX Trend Strong add weight to the bullish case on the 30M chart. Yet, the overwhelming bearish alignment across all timeframes argues that this is a corrective bounce rather than a trend reversal. Traders should watch for a decisive close above 160.53100 to signal that the bounce has legs, but should remain cautious given the strong higher-timeframe downtrends. If price fails at resistance and drops below 156.23500, the bullish signals would be negated, and the prevailing downtrend would likely reassert itself.
Catalyseurs
- ▲ Multiple bullish chart patterns (Double Bottom, Triple Bottom, Symmetrical Triangle) aligning on the 30M timeframe.
- ▲ Trendline Break Up and Trendline Retreat Up indicate a shift in short-term momentum.
- ▲ BOP Zero Cross Up and DX Trend Strong add momentum and trend-strength confirmation.
- ▲ The signal's very strong probability (93%) and high signal density suggest strong short-term bullish pressure.
Facteurs de risque
- ▼ Higher timeframes (2H, 4H, 8H) are in very strong downtrends, which could overwhelm the short-term bullish signal.
- ▼ The nearest resistance at 160.53100 is a formidable barrier; failure to break above it could lead to a reversal back down.
- ▼ If price breaks below the nearest support at 156.23500, the bullish pattern cluster would be invalidated, and the downtrend would likely resume.
- ▼ The 30M trend is described as choppy/sideways, which may reduce the reliability of the breakout signals.
Symbol
USD/JPY
Timeframe
30M
Direction
ACHAT
Conviction
35%
Strength
WEAK
Date
2026-08-04 15:00
cat_ Forex
Forex
Support & Resistance
| Level | Price | Formed |
|---|---|---|
| R1 | 160.53100 | 2026-07-31 |
| R2 | 160.87200 | 2026-07-31 |
| R3 | 163.73600 | 2026-07-30 |
| S1 | 156.23500 | 2026-08-03 |
| S2 | 155.22400 | 2026-08-03 |