Goldman Sachs sees Turkey accepting a swifter lira depreciation, setting USD/TRY on course for 30 amid easing intervention and focus on reserve accumulation.
Goldman Sachs explicitly states Turkey will likely tolerate a faster lira slide, implying reduced FX intervention and a weaker TRY. This sets up a rally in USD/TRY toward 30 as the central bank allows depreciation to rebuild reserves and support export competitiveness.
Goldman suggests the lira could slide to 30 per dollar as the central bank tolerates faster depreciation.
Traders might consider long USD/TRY positions, but should be mindful of intervention risks and high volatility.
Goldman Sachs analysts forecast that Turkish authorities will tolerate a sharper depreciation of the lira, signaling a pivot from FX intervention to managed weakness. The shift could push USD/TRY toward 30 as the central bank prioritizes reserve rebuilding over exchange rate stability. Markets may react by repricing EM carry trades and raising volatility in Turkish assets.
Goldman expects Turkey will tolerate a faster depreciation of the lira, likely pushing USD/TRY toward 30 as the central bank scales back intervention.
Allowing depreciation helps rebuild foreign exchange reserves and improves export competitiveness, but risks fueling inflation.
A weaker lira could boost Turkish equities in foreign currency terms but increases currency risk for bondholders and carry trade strategies.