Refiner stocks are outperforming oil majors as global fuel shortages and record refining margins create a sustained supply-side rally that analysts expect to last well into next year.
Phillips 66 shares have more than doubled this year as global fuel supply tightens and refining margins surge.
Valero Energy stock has more than doubled in 2026, driven by record product cracks and consensus-beating earnings.
Marathon Petroleum shares have surged over 100% this year amid extremely tight gasoline and diesel inventories.
ExxonMobil shares have gained about 40% this year amid soaring oil prices and Middle East conflict.
Chevron stock has risen around 40% in 2026 alongside the broader energy rally.
U.S. refiners Phillips 66, Valero Energy, and Marathon Petroleum have seen share prices more than double in 2026, significantly outperforming oil majors like ExxonMobil and Chevron. The rally is driven by a severe global fuel supply shock, with over 7 million barrels per day of refining capacity offline due to conflicts in the Middle East and Russia, leading to record product cracks and tight inventories.
Refiners are benefiting from a specific supply-side crunch in refined products like gasoline and diesel, whereas oil majors are primarily tied to crude prices. The loss of 7 million barrels per day of global refining capacity has pushed product cracks to record highs.