JPMorgan analysts estimate oil's fair value at $90, noting that current $106 prices incorporate severe supply disruption fears as the Iran war continues to threaten global energy infrastructure.
JPMorgan analysts warn that oil prices, currently trading near $106, reflect a significant risk premium due to the ongoing Iran war. With fair value estimated at $90, the market is pricing in potential supply losses of 4 million barrels per day, as diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the conflict remain stalled.
JPMorgan analysts attribute the $16 premium to market fears regarding the Iran war, which has led to attacks on critical infrastructure and concerns over further supply disruptions.