Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev forecasts a massive prediction market supercycle, though current adoption figures and regulatory hurdles suggest the path to trillion-dollar volume remains speculative.
Robinhood's CEO touted a prediction-markets supercycle with 12 billion contracts traded in 2025, but adoption came in below forecast and prediction market revenue remains a small share of total revenue.
Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev projects a prediction market supercycle, citing 12 billion contracts traded in 2025 and a $300 million revenue run rate. Despite this rapid growth, the segment remains a small fraction of the firm's $4.5 billion annual revenue, and regulatory uncertainty persists regarding the oversight of event-based contracts.
It is a yes-or-no claim on a specific outcome, priced between $0 and $1, which settles at $1 if the event occurs and $0 if it does not.
There is an ongoing jurisdictional dispute between state regulators and the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) over who has the authority to oversee event-based contracts.