News report 📈 Stocks 🌍 United States

Robinhood Targets Trillion-Dollar Prediction Market Volume Amid Growth

Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev forecasts a massive prediction market supercycle, though current adoption figures and regulatory hurdles suggest the path to trillion-dollar volume remains speculative.

📅 September 18, 2026 🕐 1 min read

1 assets impacted (Stocks). Net bias: 0 Bullish, 0 Bearish, 1 Neutral. Strongest signal: HOOD → 4/10 (60% confidence).

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HOOD

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📅 Short-term 🌍 US · Explicit

Robinhood's CEO touted a prediction-markets supercycle with 12 billion contracts traded in 2025, but adoption came in below forecast and prediction market revenue remains a small share of total revenue.

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🎯 Key Takeaways

Robinhood reported 12 billion prediction market contracts traded in 2025, marking the business as its fastest-growing segment.
Prediction market revenue currently accounts for roughly 6-7% of Robinhood's total annual revenue.
Regulatory disputes between state authorities and the CFTC regarding event contracts remain a significant long-term risk.

📝 Executive Summary

Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev projects a prediction market supercycle, citing 12 billion contracts traded in 2025 and a $300 million revenue run rate. Despite this rapid growth, the segment remains a small fraction of the firm's $4.5 billion annual revenue, and regulatory uncertainty persists regarding the oversight of event-based contracts.

❓ FAQ

What is a prediction market contract on Robinhood?

It is a yes-or-no claim on a specific outcome, priced between $0 and $1, which settles at $1 if the event occurs and $0 if it does not.

Why is there regulatory uncertainty surrounding these markets?

There is an ongoing jurisdictional dispute between state regulators and the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) over who has the authority to oversee event-based contracts.

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