Analyst report 💱 Forex 🌍 Poland

EUR/PLN Targets 4.400 as NBP Maintains Dovish Stance on Interest Rates

ING analysts forecast further weakness for the Polish Zloty and Romanian Leu, projecting the EUR/PLN pair to climb toward 4.400 following the National Bank of Poland's decision to maintain current interest rates.

🕐 1 min read

2 assets impacted (Forex). Net bias: 2 Bullish, 0 Bearish, 0 Neutral. Strongest signal: EUR/PLN ↑ 5/10 (55% confidence).

📊 Affected Assets (2)

EUR/PLN
Bullish 🤖 55%
📅 Short-term 🌍 PL · Explicit

The National Bank of Poland's decision to maintain interest rates at 3.75% combined with a dovish communication strategy is expected to weaken the zloty. ING analyst Frantisek Taborsky projects this policy stance will drive the EUR/PLN pair higher, targeting a range of 4.380 to 4.400.

Catalysts
  • ▲ National Bank of Poland maintaining interest rates at 3.75%
  • ▲ Dovish policy messaging from the central bank
Risk Factors
  • ▼ Unexpected hawkish shift in NBP policy
  • ▼ Stronger-than-expected Polish economic data
▼ Show FAQ (1) ▲ Hide FAQ
What is the projected target for EUR/PLN?

ING expects the pair to move towards the 4.380–4.400 range.

EUR/RON
Bullish 🤖 50%
📅 Short-term 🌍 RO · Explicit

The Romanian Leu is currently facing downward pressure similar to the Polish Zloty, driven by a broader dovish sentiment in the region. This lack of aggressive monetary tightening is anticipated to support further upside for the EUR/RON exchange rate.

Catalysts
  • ▲ Regional dovish monetary policy sentiment
  • ▲ Downward pressure on the Romanian Leu
Risk Factors
  • ▼ Shift in regional central bank policies toward hawkishness
  • ▼ Unexpected improvement in Romanian fiscal metrics
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Why is the Romanian Leu under pressure?

The currency is under pressure due to a dovish stance, which is contributing to upside potential for the EUR/RON pair.

🎯 Key Takeaways

  • National Bank of Poland keeps interest rates unchanged at 3.75%.
  • ING projects EUR/PLN to test the 4.380–4.400 resistance level.
  • Dovish central bank rhetoric continues to weigh on the Zloty and Leu.

📝 Executive Summary

The Polish Zloty faces downward pressure as the National Bank of Poland holds interest rates steady at 3.75%. ING analysts anticipate a dovish policy outlook will drive the EUR/PLN pair toward the 4.380–4.400 range in the near term.

❓ FAQ

Why is the Polish Zloty weakening against the Euro?

The Zloty is under pressure due to the National Bank of Poland's decision to hold rates at 3.75% combined with a dovish policy outlook from central bank officials.