DBS analysts anticipate a hawkish shift from the MAS in October, citing strong Q3 2026 economic data and the need to manage import inflation, a move expected to bolster the Singapore dollar.
DBS Group Research anticipates that the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) will implement a calibrated tightening of monetary policy during the October review by slightly steepening the SGD NEER policy band slope. This outlook is underpinned by persistent import cost pressures and a robust economic backdrop, specifically strong Q3 2026 GDP performance driven by the financial sector and AI-related trade activity.
DBS expects the MAS to slightly increase the slope of the SGD NEER policy band while keeping the width and center of the band unchanged.
The tightening is driven by the need to manage import cost pressures and the positive momentum from resilient Q3 2026 GDP growth.
DBS Group Research projects the Monetary Authority of Singapore will steepen the SGD NEER policy band slope during its October review. This calibrated tightening aims to address persistent import cost pressures while leveraging resilient GDP growth driven by AI-led trade and financial sector expansion.
DBS cites a combination of persistent import cost pressures and strong economic performance, particularly in the AI-led trade and financial sectors, as the primary drivers for a calibrated tightening.