Morgan Stanley warns of persistent fuel market tightness through mid-2027 as global refineries face a backlog of deferred maintenance, with outages peaking at 3.4 million barrels per day.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that global fuel markets will face persistent tightness through mid-2027, primarily driven by a significant backlog of deferred refinery maintenance. As refineries currently operate at maximum capacity, the concentration of planned outages peaking at 3.4 million barrels per day in Q2 2027 is expected to provide sustained support for WTI crude prices.
Refiners have been deferring scheduled outages to maintain maximum capacity, creating a backlog of necessary maintenance that will peak in the second quarter of 2027.
Brent crude prices are expected to remain supported as the global supply-demand balance remains constrained by the upcoming surge in refinery maintenance. With facilities running at maximum utilization to meet current demand, the industry-wide deferral of maintenance creates a structural supply bottleneck that Morgan Stanley identifies as a key factor for market tightness through mid-2027.
Morgan Stanley analysts expect global fuel markets to remain tight until at least the middle of 2027.
Morgan Stanley analysts project global fuel markets will remain constrained through mid-2027 due to a surge in deferred refinery maintenance. Global maintenance is expected to peak at 3.4 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2027 as facilities reach capacity limits.
Markets face continued pressure because refiners have deferred scheduled maintenance to keep fuel flowing, leading to a significant backlog that will peak in 2027.