News report 🌐 Macro 🌍 EUROPE

Nomura Forecasts ECB to Hold Rates at 2.50% Amid Ongoing Quantitative Tightening

Nomura expects the ECB to hold rates at 2.50% on October 29, maintaining quantitative tightening and potentially providing support for the euro against the dollar.

🕐 1 min read

1 assets impacted. Net bias: 1 Bullish, 0 Bearish, 0 Neutral. Strongest signal: EURUSD ↑ 5/10 (30% confidence).

📊 Affected Assets (1)

EURUSD
Bullish 🤖 30%
📅 Short-term 🌍 EU ✨ Inferred

Nomura analysts Andrzej Szczepaniak, George Buckley, and Josie Anderson project that the European Central Bank will maintain its deposit rate at 2.50% during the October 29 meeting. By continuing its current quantitative tightening trajectory, the ECB is positioned to be less dovish than current market expectations, which provides a potential fundamental floor for the euro against the dollar.

Catalysts
  • ▲ ECB decision to hold deposit rate at 2.50% on October 29
  • ▲ Continuation of quantitative tightening (QT) guidance
Risk Factors
  • ▼ Market pricing may have already factored in a hold, limiting upside
  • ▼ Unexpected shifts in ECB dovishness compared to Nomura's forecast
▼ Show FAQ (2) ▲ Hide FAQ
What is Nomura's outlook for the ECB deposit rate?

Nomura expects the ECB to keep the deposit rate steady at 2.50%.

When is the next ECB meeting mentioned?

The meeting is scheduled for October 29.

🎯 Key Takeaways

  • Nomura analysts expect the ECB to keep the deposit rate steady at 2.50%.
  • The central bank is likely to maintain its current quantitative tightening trajectory.
  • The firm's outlook is less dovish than current market pricing, potentially bolstering the euro.

📝 Executive Summary

Nomura analysts Andrzej Szczepaniak, George Buckley, and Josie Anderson project the European Central Bank will maintain its deposit rate at 2.50% during the October 29 meeting. The firm anticipates the ECB will uphold its current quantitative tightening guidance, signaling a stance that remains less dovish than prevailing market expectations.

❓ FAQ

What is Nomura's outlook for the upcoming ECB interest rate decision?

Nomura expects the ECB to hold the deposit rate at 2.50% and continue its quantitative tightening program.