News report 🌐 Macro 📊 Neutral 🌍 United States

ABN AMRO Expects Fed to Hold Rates at 4.00% Amid Cooling Labor Market

Q: Why does ABN AMRO expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged?

The bank points to a cooling US labor market and a decrease in inflation breadth as evidence that the current restrictive policy is working, allowing the Fed to wait for further data.

ABN AMRO projects the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady at 4.00% this week, prioritizing signs of a softening labor market and reduced inflation breadth over recent upside price surprises.

📅 October 28, 2026 🕐 1 min read

#ABN Amro #Federal Reserve #Interest Rates #Macro

Impact

0/10

💡 Key Takeaways

ABN AMRO anticipates no change to the current 3.75–4.00% federal funds rate.
Policymakers are expected to prioritize labor market cooling over recent inflation volatility.
Narrowing inflation breadth provides the Fed with sufficient flexibility to maintain current policy.

📋 Executive Summary

ABN AMRO economist Rogier Quaedvlieg forecasts the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at the 3.75–4.00% range this week. Despite recent inflation data exceeding expectations, the bank cites a cooling labor market and narrowing inflation breadth as justification for a policy pause.

📊 Sentiment Analysis

Sentiment

📊 Neutral

Impact Score

0/10

Region

🌍 United States

Asset Class

🌐 Macro

❓ Frequently Asked Questions

Why does ABN AMRO expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged?

📰 Source

📅 Originally published: October 28, 2026

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