Standard Chartered expects China's Q4 growth to remain steady as modest improvements in retail and investment offset seasonal manufacturing weakness and a narrowing trade surplus.
Standard Chartered expects China to enter Q4 at a steady pace, with October manufacturing and trade slowing seasonally but investment and retail sales improving modestly. For the yuan, a forecast narrower trade surplus and seasonal weakness in CNY loan growth are negatives, while steady activity and stronger corporate bond financing offset them. CPI below 1% year-on-year is a mixed signal with no clear currency direction.
It expects a seasonal slowdown in manufacturing and trade but modest improvement in investment and retail sales.
It forecasts a narrower trade surplus and seasonal weakness in CNY loan growth, alongside stronger corporate bond financing.
Standard Chartered analysts project China will enter the fourth quarter at a steady pace, balancing seasonal manufacturing slowdowns with modest gains in retail and investment. While inflation remains muted below 1%, the bank notes that stronger corporate bond financing may help offset seasonal weakness in loan growth and a narrowing trade surplus.
It expects a seasonal slowdown in manufacturing and trade but modest improvement in investment and retail sales.
It forecasts a narrower trade surplus and seasonal weakness in CNY loan growth, alongside stronger corporate bond financing.