Standard Chartered flags mounting stagflation risks in the Euro area as slowing GDP growth meets rising inflation, creating a difficult environment for the European Central Bank's future policy decisions.
Standard Chartered's Christopher Graham flags that Euro area GDP growth excluding Ireland has slowed steadily since Q4-2025 while inflation keeps rising, raising stagflation risk. That mix is typically negative for the euro because it complicates the ECB's policy path, though the note stops short of calling it stagflation.
GDP growth excluding Ireland has slowed steadily since Q4-2025 while inflation continues to rise.
No. The note says stagflation risks are increasing but the situation does not yet meet that definition.
Standard Chartered analyst Christopher Graham warns that Euro area economic momentum is stalling, with GDP growth excluding Ireland trending downward since Q4 2025. Concurrently, persistent inflation pressures are complicating the European Central Bank's policy outlook, heightening concerns over potential stagflation.
GDP growth excluding Ireland has slowed steadily since Q4-2025 while inflation continues to rise.
No. The note says stagflation risks are increasing but the situation does not yet meet that definition.