Nomura expects the Norges Bank to keep interest rates at 4.50% until 2028, citing a very gradual disinflation path that precludes near-term rate cuts despite the central bank's hawkish rhetoric.
Norges Bank kept its policy rate at 4.50% in November and signalled willingness to hike again if needed. Nomura expects no rate changes in 2026-2027 and sees the next move as a cut only from 2028 due to gradual disinflation. A higher-for-longer rate path supports the Norwegian krone, though the absence of an actual hike limits the move.
It kept the policy rate unchanged at 4.50% and signalled it was willing to hike again if needed.
Nomura expects the next move to be a cut, likely only from 2028, given very gradual disinflation.
Nomura analysts project that the Norges Bank will maintain its policy rate at 4.50% through 2027. The forecast follows the central bank's November decision to hold rates steady while signaling a potential for future hikes to combat persistent, gradual disinflation in the Norwegian economy.
It kept the policy rate unchanged at 4.50% and signalled it was willing to hike again if needed.
Nomura expects the next move to be a cut, likely only from 2028, given very gradual disinflation.