EUR/USD faces downward pressure below 1.1200, weighed by a bearish technical setup and safe-haven dollar inflows, even as markets scale back Fed rate-hike bets ahead of Friday's US jobs report.
The pair trades around 1.1195, below the 1.1200 handle, in a bearish near-term configuration capped under the 100-day SMA near 1.1415, with RSI(14) at 44 below neutral. Safe-haven dollar demand after a global AI stock sell-off adds downward pressure. Countervailing factors are reduced December Fed hike odds (70.9% vs 82.7%) after the Democrats' midterm win and Lagarde's slightly hawkish tone, so downside conviction is limited ahead of Friday's US jobs data.
The pair slipped below 1.1200 as safe-haven flows after a worldwide AI stock sell-off support the US dollar, and the pair remains in a bearish technical setup below the 100-day moving average.
Support sits at the lower Bollinger band near 1.1132, then 1.1100 and the May 12, 2025 low of 1.0951. Resistance is near 1.1255, then 1.1353 and the 100-day SMA around 1.1415.
German 10-year bund yields fell 5.8bps to 3.27%, contributing to the euro rate repricing that accompanies the softer EUR/USD tone. The move was data-light-session driven and mirrors the drop in euro inflation swaps to 3.10%, but it is contextual rather than a standalone driver.
French 10-year OAT yields dropped 17.6bps to 4.77%, their biggest daily decline since April, narrowing the Franco-German spread by 11.8bps to 150bps, the tightest in a couple of weeks. This reduces a regional risk premium that had weighed on the euro, but the effect on EUR/USD is marginal.
The EUR/USD pair trades near 1.1195 as safe-haven demand for the US dollar intensifies following a global AI stock sell-off. While reduced expectations for a December Fed rate hike provide some support, the pair remains capped by key technical resistance at the 100-day SMA.
The pair slipped below 1.1200 as safe-haven flows after a worldwide AI stock sell-off support the US dollar, and the pair remains in a bearish technical setup below the 100-day moving average.
Support sits at the lower Bollinger band near 1.1132, then 1.1100 and the May 12, 2025 low of 1.0951. Resistance is near 1.1255, then 1.1353 and the 100-day SMA around 1.1415.