The Kiwi remains fragile near 0.5560 as investors weigh a paper-thin parliamentary majority in New Zealand against robust US labor data and a 79.6% chance of a December Fed rate hike.
The Kiwi is holding gains near 0.5560 after the RBNZ's surprise decision to leave rates unchanged, but support is fragile: the National-led coalition's 67-seat majority is paper-thin and final election results only arrive on November 27. Strong US jobs data (NFP 165,000 in October vs 65,000 expected) and 79.6% odds of a Fed hike on December 8-9 are headwinds, and the daily chart stays bearish below the 100-day SMA at 0.5755.
The New Zealand Dollar trades near 0.5560 as markets await final election results on November 27. While the RBNZ's recent decision to hold rates provides some support, strong US October NFP data of 165,000 has increased the probability of a December Fed hike to 79.6%, keeping the pair under bearish pressure.
The pair is holding gains near 0.5560 after last week's surprise RBNZ decision to keep rates unchanged, but the election gap between the two blocs is so small that the final count on November 27 could still change the outcome, making the move fragile.
Stronger US data is a headwind: October NFP came in at 165,000 versus expectations of 65,000, and traders now put a December Fed hike at 79.6% odds. Technically, a sustained break below the lower Bollinger Band at 0.5545 would extend the downtrend.