USD/CHF climbs to 0.8210 on strong US jobs data and a 78% probability of a December Fed rate hike, despite UOB analysts flagging potential downside risks toward 0.8110.
The pair is extending gains for a third straight day to around 0.8210, driven by an October NFP surprise of 165,000 versus a 65,000 consensus and a 4.1% unemployment rate, which has pushed the probability of a 25bp December FOMC hike past 78%. A hawkish Fed repricing directly lifts USD against the franc. Counterweights are falling oil prices easing inflation and safe-haven CHF demand after the Democratic sweep, plus UOB flagging scope for a test of 0.8110 while 0.8205 holds as strong resistance.
The USD/CHF pair is extending gains for a third consecutive day, trading near 0.8210 as robust US labor data fuels expectations for a December rate hike. October Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 165,000, significantly beating the 65,000 consensus, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. Markets are now pricing in a greater than 78% probability of a 25-basis-point FOMC hike, though UOB analysts warn that 0.8205 remains a critical resistance level.
Strong US jobs data — October Nonfarm Payrolls rose 165,000 against a 65,000 estimate and unemployment fell to 4.1% — has lifted expectations of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in December above 78%, boosting the dollar against the franc.
Cheaper oil eases inflation and weakens the case for Fed tightening, while the Swiss franc gains safe-haven demand after the Democratic sweep; UOB also marks 0.8205 as strong resistance above the current 0.8210 level.