The Global Carbon Project forecasts a 0.4% dip in 2026 fossil fuel emissions as the Iran war triggers an oil demand slump, though researchers caution that current clean energy growth remains insufficient for a permanent peak.
The Global Carbon Budget projects oil-related CO2 emissions falling 1.9% in 2026 because the Iran conflict and Hormuz trade shock are crushing oil demand alongside high prices. Weaker consumption is a headwind for crude prices, but this is a backward-looking research projection, not new supply/demand data.
The report attributes the projected 0.4% drop in global fossil CO2 emissions in 2026 to an oil-demand slump caused by the Hormuz energy price shock, with oil emissions down 1.9%. Falling demand points to softer Brent prices, though the scientists themselves note the decline may be temporary and does not signal a structural peak.
Global fossil fuel CO2 emissions are expected to decline by 0.4% in 2026, reaching 38.2 billion tons, according to the Global Carbon Project. This reduction is primarily driven by a 1.9% drop in oil-related emissions following the energy price shock caused by the Iran conflict and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. While solar and wind deployment are contributing to the trend, experts warn this does not signal a structural peak in emissions.