ING expects the Euro to remain soft against the Dollar in a 1.10-1.15 range until Q2 2027, when moderating energy prices and political clarity could support a recovery toward 1.18.
ING's Chris Turner projects EUR/USD to stay offered in a 1.10-1.15 range for the next four to five months, with French budget politics keeping a risk premium in the euro ahead of April's elections. Only from Q2 2027 does the bank see a recovery towards 1.18 by year-end. This near-term negative view could weigh on positioning, though it is a forecast, not hard data.
French budgetary politics are expected to keep a risk premium priced into the euro ahead of April's elections, which argues for a softer euro against the dollar in the coming months. The recovery scenario towards 1.18 only materialises from the second quarter, limiting the near-term downside case.
ING analyst Chris Turner forecasts that the EUR/USD pair will remain under pressure, trading within a 1.10-1.15 range for the next four to five months. The outlook is primarily driven by French budget politics, which are expected to maintain a risk premium on the Euro ahead of the April elections.
ING expects EUR/USD to trade soft in a 1.10-1.15 range over the next four to five months, then recover gently towards 1.18 by year-end 2027 once US rates soften, energy prices moderate and French politics become clearer.
French budget politics, which are expected to keep a risk premium in the euro ahead of April's elections.