News report 💱 Forex 🌍 United States

EUR/USD Slips to 1.1166 as Hot US CPI Fuels December Fed Hike Bets

EUR/USD trades at 1.1166 as the US Dollar rallies to a 12-day high of 102.41 following hot October CPI data that makes a December Fed rate hike all but certain.

🕐 1 min read

2 assets impacted (Forex). Net bias: 1 Bullish, 1 Bearish, 0 Neutral. Strongest signal: EUR/USD ↓ 7/10 (80% confidence).

📊 Affected Assets (2)

EUR/USD
Bearish 🤖 80%
📅 Short-term 🌍 GLOBAL · Explicit

Hot October US CPI, released November 10, has made a December Fed hike 'all but certain' per TD Securities, with Waller open to a 50bps move. Rate-hike expectations lift the Dollar and push EUR/USD down to 1.1166, below the 20-day EMA at 1.1202 and near the 17-month low at 1.1104.

Catalysts
  • ▼ Hot US October CPI released Tuesday fueling December Fed hike expectations
  • ▼ Waller's hawkish remarks opening the door to a 50bps December hike
Risk Factors
  • ▲ TD Securities still favors only a 25bp hike in December, which would be less dollar-supportive than 50bps
  • ▲ RSI at 43 signals only modest negative momentum, not outright oversold, so downside may be limited unless 1.1104 breaks
USD
Bullish 🤖 80%
📅 Short-term 🌍 US · Explicit

The hot October CPI print has sealed expectations of a December Fed hike, with debate now on 25 versus 50bps, and Waller's 9/10 hawkish speech score supports further tightening. The DXY sits near a fresh 12-day high of 102.41, and the Fed Sentiment Index rising to 145.50 confirms a hawkish shift favoring the Dollar.

Catalysts
  • ▲ Hot US October CPI released November 10 making a December hike near-certain
  • ▲ Waller's openness to a 50bps December hike if core CPI is around 0.3% or higher
Risk Factors
  • ▼ TD Securities favors a smaller 25bp December hike, which could cap Dollar gains if markets align with that view
  • ▼ Much of the hawkish repricing may already be priced in after Tuesday's CPI-driven rally to 102.41

🧭 Full analysis of these assets

🎯 Key Takeaways

  • The US Dollar Index (DXY) reached a fresh 12-day high of 102.41 on Tuesday following hot October CPI data.
  • EUR/USD trades at 1.1166, remaining below the 20-day EMA of 1.1202, which acts as immediate resistance.
  • The FXS Fed Sentiment Index rose 3.17 points to 145.50, signaling a decisive shift toward hawkish policy expectations.
  • The 17-month low of 1.1104 serves as the critical support level, with a break potentially exposing the 1.1000 psychological mark.

📝 Executive Summary

The EUR/USD pair remains under pressure at 1.1166 as a hot October US CPI print cements expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate hike. Markets are now debating whether the central bank will opt for a 25bps or a 50bps increase, with Fed Governor Waller signaling openness to the larger move. The US Dollar Index (DXY) holds near a 12-day high of 102.41, while the pair struggles to reclaim its 20-day EMA at 1.1202.

❓ FAQ

EUR/USD · Why is EUR/USD falling?

Stronger-than-expected US inflation for October has convinced markets the Fed will raise rates in December, possibly by a bigger-than-usual 50bps, which strengthens the Dollar against the Euro.

EUR/USD · What levels should I watch?

Resistance is the 20-day EMA at 1.1202; below, the 17-month low at 1.1104 is key support, and a break there opens the way toward 1.1000.

USD · Why is the Dollar strengthening?

October US CPI came in hot, making a December Fed rate hike all but certain, and Fed Governor Waller signaled openness to an even larger 50bps move, pushing the Dollar Index to a 12-day high of 102.41.