All 71 economists surveyed by Reuters expect a 25 basis point ECB rate hike to 2.75% in December, with 25 analysts anticipating further tightening in early 2027 amid upwardly revised inflation forecasts.
All 71 economists in the Reuters poll expect a 25bp ECB hike to 2.75% in December, and 25 even see a further hike in Q1 2027. Inflation forecasts were lifted to 3.1% for 2026 and 2.8% for 2027, arguing for tighter policy that supports the Euro. However, a December hike is largely the market consensus already, limiting the fresh surprise.
A unanimous poll expectation of an ECB hike to 2.75% in December, with elevated Eurozone inflation forecasts (3.1% in 2026, 2.8% in 2027), points to tighter policy that typically pushes Eurozone benchmark yields higher. The effect is indirect, as the article does not discuss bond markets.
A Reuters poll of 71 economists shows unanimous agreement that the European Central Bank will raise its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.75% in December. Analysts also lifted their inflation projections to 3.1% for 2026 and 2.8% for 2027, citing persistent price pressures that remain well above the bank's 2% target.
All 71 economists surveyed expect a 25 basis point hike to a 2.75% deposit rate in December, with 25 of them also expecting another hike, most likely in the first quarter of 2027.
Relatively high interest rates usually result in a stronger Euro, so expectations of a rate hike and raised inflation forecasts are supportive for the currency.
Expectations of tighter ECB policy, with all 71 polled economists forecasting a hike to 2.75% in December, tend to pull Eurozone benchmark yields upward.