While Bernstein projects Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by December, prediction markets assign a mere 3% chance to the forecast, with traders betting on a year-end price closer to $75,000.
Bernstein predicts $150,000 by year-end, but prediction markets assign only 3% probability, reflecting market skepticism.
Bernstein analysts maintain a bullish $150,000 year-end target for Bitcoin, citing the debasement trade and institutional ETF inflows. However, prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi remain skeptical, assigning only a 3% probability to this outcome as traders favor a more conservative $75,000 year-end close.
Bernstein analysts cite the 'debasement trade' driven by rising US debt and sustained institutional demand through spot Bitcoin ETFs as primary catalysts for their bullish outlook.