Bitcoin enters a phase of low volatility and upward consolidation, with 71% of supply in profit as investors await key macroeconomic catalysts to drive the next price move.
Bitcoin is currently in a state of upward consolidation characterized by historically low realized volatility, largely driven by long-term holders keeping supply off the market. While 71% of the circulating supply is in profit—nearing the historical 74.7% threshold often associated with bull market transitions—Bitfinex analysts note that a sustainable rally requires a daily close above the $82,283 resistance level. The market remains at a crossroads where institutional demand via ETFs must outweigh potential profit-taking from holders as prices approach previous highs.
Glassnode attributes the low volatility primarily to long-term holders keeping their coins off the market, which reduces the supply available for trading.
Historically, this level has often coincided with the transition phase from a bear market into a new bull market, though it is not a guaranteed trigger for a price increase.
It describes a period where the price moves sideways following a previous directional move, allowing the market to absorb earlier gains before potentially continuing the trend.
Bitcoin is experiencing a period of extreme price compression, with one-month realized volatility near historic lows. Analysts attribute this stability to long-term holders keeping supply off the market, even as 71% of circulating coins remain in profit. While the setup suggests upward consolidation, market participants are awaiting a breakout above the $82,283 resistance level to confirm a sustainable bull trend.
Volatility is compressed primarily because long-term holders are keeping a significant portion of the circulating supply off the market, reducing the number of coins available for active trading.
Analysts at Bitfinex suggest that Bitcoin needs to reclaim and hold a daily close above the $82,283 level reached on September 3 to confirm a sustainable upward trend.