ING forecasts EUR/PLN to reach 4.400 as the National Bank of Poland delays monetary tightening, leaving the Zloty vulnerable to external pressures including a firmer Dollar and record energy costs.
The EUR/PLN pair is expected to appreciate toward the 4.380–4.400 range as the Polish Zloty faces downward pressure. This outlook is driven by the National Bank of Poland's decision to delay rate-hike discussions until at least December, combined with broader market headwinds including a strengthening U.S. Dollar and surging gas prices.
Most Monetary Policy Committee members have signaled that December is the earliest timeframe for such discussions.
ING expects the pair to return to the 4.380–4.400 range.
ING analyst Frantisek Taborsky projects the Euro will climb toward the 4.380-4.400 range against the Polish Zloty. The forecast follows signals from the National Bank of Poland that interest rate discussions will not commence until December, leaving the currency exposed to a stronger Dollar and surging gas prices.
The Zloty is weakening due to the National Bank of Poland's decision to delay interest rate hikes until at least December, combined with a strengthening US Dollar and record-high gas prices.