Will the new FX curbs strengthen the rupiah against the dollar?
The curbs aim to reduce speculative selling of the rupiah, which could provide short-term support. However, sustained strength depends on broader factors like Indonesia's trade balance, interest rate differentials, and global risk sentiment.
How do the restrictions impact trading of USD/IDR?
Transaction limits and tighter oversight may reduce liquidity in the USD/IDR market, potentially increasing bid-ask spreads and making it costlier to execute large trades. This could lead to less volatility but also less market depth.
Could this policy trigger a backlash from Wall Street banks?
Possibly, if the restrictions severely limit banks' profitability or hinder their ability to manage risk. However, banks may adapt by shifting strategies or seeking exemptions, while Indonesia risks reduced foreign participation in its FX market.