ING projects Brent crude will slide to $71 per barrel by 2027 as Persian Gulf supply recovers, despite current market volatility maintaining a temporary risk premium.
ING maintains a bearish long-term outlook for Brent crude, projecting a decline to $80/bbl by 4Q26 and $71/bbl by FY27. Despite current price firmness supported by a geopolitical risk premium, the firm anticipates downward pressure as supply concerns stabilize.
ING forecasts Brent at $80/bbl for 4Q26 and $71/bbl for FY27.
Prices remain firm due to market concerns regarding the sustainability of supply flows and the lack of a US-Iran deal, which creates a sizeable risk premium.
ING analysts maintain a bearish outlook for Brent crude, projecting a decline to $80 per barrel by the fourth quarter of 2026 and $71 by fiscal year 2027. Despite current price resilience driven by geopolitical risk premiums, the firm expects supply normalization to weigh on valuations as the market stabilizes.
ING expects that as Persian Gulf supply recovers toward pre-war levels, the current risk premium will dissipate, leading to lower price targets in 2026 and 2027.