News report 🏭 Commodities 🌍 GLOBAL

Middle East Crude Exports Hit 80% of Pre-War Levels as Refined Products Lag

Gulf crude exports reach 80-85% of pre-war levels while refined products stay stuck at 35-40%, as Qatar boosts LNG shipments and hedges against long-term Hormuz uncertainty with new US supply deals.

📅 November 11, 2026 🕐 1 min read

5 assets impacted (Commodities, Stocks). Net bias: 2 Bullish, 3 Bearish, 0 Neutral. Strongest signal: USOIL ↓ 4/10 (55% confidence).

📊 Affected Assets (5)

USOIL

Bearish 🤖 55%

📅 Short-term 🌍 GLOBAL ✨ Inferred

Gulf crude exports, including pipelines, have recovered to 80-85% of pre-war levels per FGE's Fesharaki, adding supply back to the market while the Hormuz chokepoint risk fades on diplomatic signals. Faster crude recovery than refined products narrows product cracks and pressures crude outright. Continued drone-strike vulnerability on refineries and pipelines caps the downside.

Catalysts

▼ Gulf crude exports back to 80-85% of pre-war levels
▼ Qatari LNG loadings up to 13-15 per 10-day period in November from about 11 in October

Risk Factors

▲ Refineries remain susceptible to drone strikes
▲ Qatar output still roughly half of pre-war pace

UKOIL

Bearish 🤖 55%

📅 Short-term 🌍 GLOBAL ✨ Inferred

Middle Eastern crude exports recovered to 80-85% of pre-war levels, and the article notes Brent already fell below $90 for the first time since August as peace optimism grew. Rising Gulf supply and fading Hormuz risk argue for lower Brent prices. Offsetting factor: refined products at only 35-40% of pre-war levels could keep overall product markets tight and support refining margins.

Catalysts

▼ Crude exports at 80-85% of pre-war levels per FGE NexantECA
▼ Qatar LNG loadings rising in November

Risk Factors

▲ Refined-product exports stuck at 35-40% could tighten product markets
▲ Drone strikes on oil infrastructure remain a threat

TTF

Bearish 🤖 50%

📅 Short-term 🌍 EUROPE ✨ Inferred

Qatar's LNG loadings rose to 13-15 shipments per 10-day period in November from about 11 in October, and the article says a pickup in Qatari supply would be welcome for Europe, where gas trades around 82 euros per MWh and inventories are well below seasonal norms. More LNG flow points to easing prices. Supply is still only roughly half pre-war levels, which limits the bearish effect.

Catalysts

▼ Qatar LNG loadings up to 13-15 per 10-day period from about 11 in October

Risk Factors

▲ Qatari LNG still roughly half of pre-war pace
▲ European inventories well below seasonal norms keep prices supported

LNG

Bullish 🤖 60%

🗓️ Long-term 🌍 US · Explicit

Qatar has signed for up to 7 million tons a year of US LNG from Cheniere and Woodside, a hedge against years of Hormuz risk. A signed offtake of this size is a hard commercial win for Cheniere, though deliveries start only in 2030 and 2031, limiting the near-term price effect.

Catalysts

▲ Up to 7 million tons per year of US LNG signed with Qatar, deliveries starting 2030 and 2031

Risk Factors

▼ Deliveries not starting until 2030 and 2031

WDS

Bullish 🤖 60%

🗓️ Long-term 🌍 AU · Explicit

Qatar signed for up to 7 million tons a year of US LNG from Cheniere and Woodside as a hedge against years of Hormuz risk, securing future volumes for Woodside. Deliveries begin only in 2030 and 2031, so the effect on the share price today is modest.

Catalysts

▲ Qatar LNG supply agreement of up to 7 million tons a year, deliveries starting 2030 and 2031

Risk Factors

▼ Revenue impact deferred to 2030 and 2031

🧭 Full analysis of these assets

🎯 Key Takeaways

Middle Eastern crude exports, including pipelines, have recovered to 80-85% of pre-war levels.
Refined product exports remain muted at 35-40% of pre-war capacity due to drone strike risks.
Qatari LNG loadings rose to 13-15 per 10-day period in November, up from 11 in October.
Qatar signed deals for up to 7 million tons of US LNG annually from Cheniere and Woodside, with deliveries beginning in 2030 and 2031.

📝 Executive Summary

Middle Eastern crude exports have recovered to 80-85% of pre-war levels, though refined product shipments remain constrained at 35-40% due to ongoing infrastructure vulnerability. Meanwhile, Qatar has increased LNG loadings to 13-15 per 10-day period, though volumes remain at roughly half of pre-war capacity. To mitigate long-term Hormuz transit risks, Qatar has secured agreements for up to 7 million tons of US LNG annually from Cheniere and Woodside, with deliveries starting in 2030 and 2031.

❓ FAQ

USOIL · Why is more Gulf crude supply bad for oil prices?

Crude exports reaching 80-85% of pre-war levels means more barrels reaching the market, easing the scarcity premium that supported prices since the war began.

UKOIL · What does the crude versus refined products gap mean?

Producers prioritize crude shipments because refineries are vulnerable to drone strikes, so crude supply recovers faster while refined products remain scarce at 35-40% of pre-war levels.

TTF · Why does more Qatari LNG pressure European gas prices?

Europe depends on imported LNG when inventories are below seasonal norms, so rising Qatari loadings add supply and reduce the scarcity premium in prices around 82 euros per megawatt-hour.

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