Central banks in Poland and Romania are set to hold rates steady as persistent inflation and political volatility limit the scope for monetary easing in the near term.
Societe Generale strategists anticipate that the National Bank of Poland (NBP) will maintain a hawkish stance while holding rates at 3.75%. This policy direction is expected to bolster the Polish zloty, exerting downward pressure on the EUR/PLN currency pair.
Societe Generale expects a hawkish hold at 3.75%.
The National Bank of Romania (NBR) is projected to keep interest rates steady at 6.50% due to limited policy flexibility. While this hold provides a baseline of support for the Romanian leu, the currency remains vulnerable to ongoing political uncertainty.
The NBR is expected to hold rates at 6.50% with a cautious easing path.
Societe Generale strategists project that the National Bank of Poland and the National Bank of Romania will maintain current interest rates at 3.75% and 6.50%, respectively. The hawkish stance from the NBP is expected to provide support for the Polish zloty, while the Romanian leu faces pressure from ongoing political uncertainty.
Both central banks are balancing persistent inflation risks with limited policy flexibility, further complicated by political uncertainty in Romania.
The zloty is expected to see short-term strength against the euro due to the NBP's hawkish hold at 3.75%.