Norway’s upstream sector risks a 1.9 million boepd production shortfall by 2040 unless operators shift from small-scale infrastructure-led exploration to high-impact wildcat drilling.
Rystad Energy projects Norway's oil and gas output could fall 1.9 million boepd short by 2040, with a 2.2 million boepd gap if exploration stays at the past decade's level. The shortfall is structural and far in the future, so it offers no near-term driver for the krone beyond a mildly weaker long-term outlook for the petroleum-linked economy.
The projected production decline only materialises by 2040, and the article notes operators plan around five high-impact wells per year plus 70 new blocks in the APA round, so there is no immediate currency impact.
Norway’s oil and gas sector faces a structural production decline as exploration shifts toward smaller, short-lived tieback projects. Rystad Energy projects a 1.9 million boepd production gap by 2040, warning that current infrastructure-led exploration is insufficient to replace aging large-scale fields. Reversing this trend requires a pivot toward high-impact, wildcat drilling to secure the country's long-term energy output.
The projected production decline only materialises by 2040, and the article notes operators plan around five high-impact wells per year plus 70 new blocks in the APA round, so there is no immediate currency impact.