Pivotal Research sets a $220 target for SpaceX, betting that Starship's rapid reusability will unlock massive cost efficiencies and drive long-term growth despite significant dilution and lockup risks.
Pivotal Research initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $220 year-end 2027 price target, implying about 50% upside, though lockup expiry and binary Starship risks temper conviction.
Pivotal Research Group has initiated coverage on SpaceX (SPCX) with a Buy rating and a $220 price target, suggesting 50% upside by 2027. The firm's bullish thesis hinges entirely on the successful rapid reusability of the Starship vehicle, which could slash launch costs by 90% and transform the company's long-term economics.
The firm's outlook is predicated on the Starship vehicle achieving rapid, inexpensive reusability, which would fundamentally lower launch costs and enable large-scale expansion in Starlink and AI infrastructure.
Key risks include the binary outcome of Starship's engineering milestones, significant capital requirements exceeding $1 trillion over the next decade, and potential share dilution from ongoing lockup expirations.