Investors await October's NFP report to gauge labor market health, with a print below 30K potentially accelerating the USD selloff while a reading above 80K could bolster the Greenback.
The pair has gained this week as the Dollar sold off after Democrats won both chambers in the midterms, and TD Securities sees a modest USD relief selloff into year-end that a soft payrolls print (their forecast: 40K) would reinforce, lifting EUR/USD toward resistance at 1.1350 and 1.1420. But a strong NFP above 80K would correct the pair lower, so the pre-data direction is balanced.
A weak print at or below 30K could extend the Dollar selloff and let EUR/USD build on its weekly gains, targeting the 1.1350 and 1.1420 resistance levels.
Resistance sits at 1.1350 and 1.1420, then 1.1540; support is at 1.1130 (Bollinger Band) and 1.1000.
October NFP is released today at 13:30 GMT with consensus at 65K after September's 29K. Markets already price a 25 bps Fed hike in December (rate at 3.75%-4%), so only a big surprise should move pricing: a print at or below 30K could crush the ~20% January hike odds and extend the post-midterm USD selloff, while above 80K would support the Dollar. The outcome is two-sided ahead of the release, hence neutral ex-ante.
A print at or below 30K could accelerate the USD selloff by undermining a January Fed rate hike, while a reading above 80K could rally the Dollar and push EUR/USD lower.
A noticeable shift in December pricing is unlikely unless there is a significant negative surprise, as markets already expect a 25 bps hike.
Gold moves inversely to NFP surprises: a soft payrolls figure would weigh on the Dollar and support Gold, while a strong print would depress it via higher rate expectations. Because the report is due today and the direction depends on the actual number, the pre-release stance is neutral with only modest relevance since the article frames Gold mainly as background.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release October Nonfarm Payrolls today at 13:30 GMT, with consensus estimates pointing to 65K new jobs. While markets have largely priced in a 25 bps Fed hike for December, a significant deviation from expectations could influence the Dollar's trajectory and interest rate bets for early 2027.
A print at or below 30K could accelerate the USD selloff by undermining a January Fed rate hike, while a reading above 80K could rally the Dollar.
A weak print could extend the Dollar selloff and allow EUR/USD to build on its weekly gains, targeting resistance levels at 1.1350 and 1.1420.