USD/JPY 2H SELL

· 18 hours ago
SELL
67%
▼ SELL
MODERATE
Intraday
Prognose: 27% historisch
⚡ Confluence +29%
▲ Bullish 33% (11.18) ▼ Bearish 67% (22.89)
USD/JPY  ·  2H
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Signal evolution

Signals Fired

Signals Fired Category Weight
Bear Flag chart_pattern 3.45
MIDPOINT Retreat Down indicator 2.28
MIDPRICE Retreat Down indicator 2.27
KAMA Retreat Down indicator 2.24
Fibonacci Break DownTrend (0%) fibonacci 1.94
STOCHF KD Cross Down indicator 1.89
EMA Retreat Down indicator 1.88
BOP Zero Cross Down indicator 1.58
Tweezers Top candlestick 1.11
Bearish Engulfing candlestick 0.99

Trend Context

15M
DOWNSolid trend
30M
DOWNSolid trend
1H
DOWNVery strong trend
2H
DOWNVery strong trend
4H
DOWNSolid trend
8H
DOWNTrend forming
12H
DOWNSolid trend
1D
DOWNTrend forming

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways
  • A dense cluster of bearish signals (Bear Flag, Fibonacci break, multiple retreats down) points to continued downside.
  • Trend alignment is strongly bearish across timeframes, especially on 1H and 2H.
  • Watch 163.90400 as key resistance; a break above would invalidate the bearish setup.
  • Target the nearest support at 157.96900, but be mindful of potential consolidation.
The USD/JPY 2H chart has triggered a dense cluster of bearish signals, led by a Bear Flag continuation pattern and a Fibonacci Break DownTrend (0%). Momentum is firmly on the sellers' side: the BOP zero cross down indicates selling pressure, while the STOCHF KD cross down confirms short-term bearish momentum. Additionally, the EMA, KAMA, MIDPOINT, and MIDPRICE all show retreats down, aligning moving averages and price centroids with the downward move. The confluence of these signals across candlestick, chart pattern, fibonacci, and indicator groups underscores a very strong bearish setup.

Trend alignment is robust across timeframes, with bearish trends on all major charts from 15m to 1D, though the 8H and 1D trends are still forming (2/5). The 1H and 2H show very strong bearish trends (4/5), providing solid backing for the signal. The nearest resistance at 163.90400 is a key level to watch; a break above it would invalidate the bearish thesis. On the downside, the nearest support at 157.96900 is the primary target zone. As long as price stays below resistance and the bearish momentum persists, the path of least resistance is lower.
Catalysts
  • Bear Flag pattern suggests a continuation of the prior downtrend.
  • Fibonacci Break DownTrend (0%) confirms the break of a key Fibonacci level.
  • BOP zero cross down and STOCHF KD cross down confirm bearish momentum.
  • Strong trend scores (4/5) on 1H and 2H align with the signal direction.
Risk Factors
  • A break above 163.90400 would invalidate the bearish setup and could trigger a short squeeze.
  • The 8H and 1D trends are still forming (2/5), so the longer-term bearishness is not fully confirmed.
  • The RSI may be approaching oversold conditions, increasing the risk of a bounce.
  • Watch for a loss of momentum if the STOCHF or BOP cross back up.
Symbol USD/JPY
Timeframe 2H
Direction SELL
Probability 67%
Strength MODERATE
Date 2026-07-31 16:00
cat_ Forex Forex

Support & Resistance

Level Price Formed
R1 163.90400 2026-07-29
R2 163.94700 2026-07-28
R3 163.98400 2026-07-23
S1 157.96900 2026-07-30

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