USD/JPY 4H BUY

· 18 hours ago
BUY
75%
▲ BUY
MODERATE
Swing
Prognose: 26% historisch
▲ Bullish 75% (8.14) ▼ Bearish 25% (2.73)
USD/JPY  ·  4H
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Signal evolution

Signals Fired

Signals Fired Category Weight
Double Top chart_pattern 2.73
RSI OS Exit indicator 1.81
WILLR OS Exit indicator 1.68
CMO OS Exit indicator 1.53
CCI OS Exit indicator 1.46
STOCHF KD Cross Up indicator 1.08
Closing Marubozu Bullish candlestick 0.95
BOP Zero Cross Up indicator 0.85

Trend Context

15M
DOWNSolid trend
30M
DOWNSolid trend
1H
DOWNVery strong trend
2H
DOWNVery strong trend
4H
DOWNSolid trend
8H
DOWNTrend forming
12H
DOWNSolid trend
1D
DOWNTrend forming

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways
  • Multiple oversold indicators and a bullish candlestick suggest a potential short-term bounce in USD/JPY.
  • The overall trend across all timeframes remains bearish, so any bounce is likely to be corrective.
  • Watch the nearest resistance at 163.94700; a failure to break above it could signal the resumption of the downtrend.
  • The signal probability is 74% with moderate strength, indicating a reasonable but not overwhelming bullish case.
The 4H USD/JPY chart has fired a cluster of bullish signals, including a Double Top pattern (which typically signals a bearish reversal, but here it may be interpreted as a completed pattern leading to a bounce), a BOP Zero Cross Up, and several oversold exit signals (CCI, CMO, RSI, WILLR) alongside a STOCHF KD Cross Up and a bullish Closing Marubozu candlestick. These signals collectively suggest that selling pressure may be exhausting and a short-term bounce is likely. However, the broader trend across all timeframes is bearish, with the 1H and 2H showing very strong downtrends. This creates a conflict: the intraday momentum is turning bullish, but the higher-timeframe trend remains firmly down. The nearest resistance is at 163.94700, which could act as a ceiling for any bounce. Traders should watch whether the bounce can reclaim this level or if it stalls, as the overall trend favors further downside.
Catalysts
  • Confluence of oversold exit signals (RSI, CCI, CMO, WILLR) and a bullish candlestick pattern.
  • STOCHF KD Cross Up and BOP Zero Cross Up indicate improving buying momentum.
  • The Double Top pattern may have completed, often leading to a bounce after a breakout.
Risk Factors
  • The higher timeframe trend is strongly bearish (1H and 2H very strong), which could overwhelm the intraday bounce.
  • The nearest resistance at 163.94700 is a potential barrier; if the price fails to break above it, the bounce could fade.
  • The signal is based on a 4H timeframe, but the 15m and 30m are still bearish, suggesting the bounce may be short-lived.
  • If the price breaks below the recent low (the invalidation level), the bullish setup would be negated.
Symbol USD/JPY
Timeframe 4H
Direction BUY
Probability 75%
Strength MODERATE
Date 2026-07-31 12:00
cat_ Forex Forex

Support & Resistance

Level Price Formed
R1 163.94700 2026-07-28
R2 163.98400 2026-07-23

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