USD/JPY – 1H – BUY
BUY
77%
▲ Bullish 77% (39.26)
▼ Bearish 23% (11.88)
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Signal evolution
Signals Fired
| Signals Fired | Category | Weight | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ▼ | Trendline Break Down | trendline | 2.12 |
| ▲ | CCI OS Exit | indicator | 1.60 |
| ▲ | BOP Zero Cross Up | indicator | 1.45 |
| ▼ | DX Trend Weak | indicator | 1.39 |
| ▲ | STOCH KD Cross Up | indicator | 1.39 |
| ▲ | DEMA Retreat Up | indicator | 1.35 |
| ▲ | CMO Zero Cross Up | indicator | 1.26 |
| ▲ | RSI Midline Cross Up | indicator | 1.26 |
| ▲ | HT TRENDLINE Retreat Up | indicator | 1.23 |
| ▲ | MA Retreat Up | indicator | 1.15 |
| ▲ | Fibonacci Retreat UpTrend (79%) | fibonacci | 1.12 |
| ▲ | MOM Zero Cross Up | indicator | 1.09 |
| ▲ | ROC Zero Cross Up | indicator | 1.09 |
| ▲ | ROCR Cross Up | indicator | 1.09 |
| ▲ | BBANDS MIDDLE Cross Up | indicator | 0.90 |
| ▲ | Bullish Engulfing | candlestick | 0.90 |
Trend Context
15MDOWNTrend forming
30MDOWNTrend forming
1HDOWNTrend forming
2HDOWNVery strong trend
4HDOWNVery strong trend
8HDOWNVery strong trend
12HDOWNSolid trend
1DDOWNSolid trend
Analysis
🎯 Key Takeaways
- A cluster of bullish signals on the 1H chart suggests a potential short-term bounce in USD/JPY.
- The broader trend is bearish across all timeframes, so this is a counter-trend move with limited upside.
- Key resistance at 160.87200 is the immediate target; a break above could signal a larger reversal.
- Support at 156.23500 is the invalidation level; a break below would negate the bullish setup.
The 1H USD/JPY chart has fired a dense cluster of bullish signals, led by a Trendline Break Down and multiple zero-cross up signals (BOP, CMO, MOM, ROC, ROCR). The CCI OS Exit confirms the end of oversold conditions, while the DX Trend Weak suggests that the prevailing bearish momentum is losing steam. Together, these signals indicate a potential short-term reversal to the upside, likely targeting the nearest resistance at 160.87200. However, the broader trend remains bearish across all timeframes, with very strong trends on the 2H, 4H, and 8H charts. This suggests that the bullish signal is a counter-trend bounce within a larger downtrend, and the upside may be limited.
Traders should watch the nearest resistance at 160.87200 as a key level; a break above it could signal a more meaningful reversal, while a rejection could lead to a resumption of the downtrend. The nearest support at 156.23500 remains the critical level to watch for invalidation of the bullish setup. Given the conflicting timeframes, this signal should be treated as a tactical long opportunity with tight risk management, rather than a trend-following trade.
Traders should watch the nearest resistance at 160.87200 as a key level; a break above it could signal a more meaningful reversal, while a rejection could lead to a resumption of the downtrend. The nearest support at 156.23500 remains the critical level to watch for invalidation of the bullish setup. Given the conflicting timeframes, this signal should be treated as a tactical long opportunity with tight risk management, rather than a trend-following trade.
Catalysts
- ▲ Multiple zero-cross up signals (BOP, CMO, MOM, ROC, ROCR) indicate strong bullish momentum alignment.
- ▲ CCI oversold exit suggests the selling pressure is exhausting.
- ▲ Trendline break down adds a technical pattern confluence.
- ▲ DX trend weak indicates the bearish trend is losing strength.
Risk Factors
- ▼ Higher timeframes (2H, 4H, 8H) show very strong bearish trends, which could overpower the 1H bullish signal.
- ▼ Nearest resistance at 160.87200 is a nearby opposing level that could cap upside.
- ▼ If price fails to hold above the trendline break or breaks below 156.23500 support, the bullish signal is invalidated.
- ▼ Momentum indicators could fade quickly in a counter-trend move, leading to a false breakout.
Symbol
USD/JPY
Timeframe
1H
Direction
BUY
Probability
77%
Strength
STRONG
Date
2026-08-04 17:00
cat_ Forex
Forex
Support & Resistance
| Level | Price | Formed |
|---|---|---|
| R1 | 160.87200 | 2026-07-31 |
| R2 | 163.73600 | 2026-07-30 |
| R3 | 163.90400 | 2026-07-29 |
| S1 | 156.23500 | 2026-08-03 |
| S2 | 155.22400 | 2026-08-03 |
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