USD/JPY – 4H – SELL
SELL
91%
▲ Bullish 9% (1.17)
▼ Bearish 91% (11.94)
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Signal evolution
Signals Fired
| Signals Fired | Category | Weight | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ▼ | Bear Flag | chart_pattern | 2.47 |
| ▼ | KAMA Retreat Down | indicator | 1.90 |
| ▼ | Fibonacci Break DownTrend (0%) | fibonacci | 1.87 |
| ▼ | STOCHF KD Cross Down | indicator | 1.59 |
| ▼ | SMA Retreat Down | indicator | 1.55 |
| ▼ | BOP Zero Cross Down | indicator | 1.21 |
| ▲ | HT PHASOR Inphase Cross Up | indicator | 1.17 |
| ▼ | Tweezers Top | candlestick | 1.02 |
Trend Context
15MDOWNSolid trend
30MDOWNTrend forming
1HDOWNChoppy / sideways
2HDOWNVery strong trend
4HDOWNVery strong trend
8HDOWNVery strong trend
12HDOWNSolid trend
1DDOWNSolid trend
Analysis
🎯 Key Takeaways
- Strong bearish confluence: Bear Flag, Tweezers Top, and Fibonacci breakdown all align.
- All timeframes are bearish, with the strongest trends on 2H, 4H, and 8H.
- Immediate downside target is support at 155.22400; resistance at 163.94700.
- High probability (91%) and very strong signal strength suggest a high-confidence trade setup.
The USD/JPY 4H signal is overwhelmingly bearish, with a 91% probability and very strong strength. A confluence of technical signals—Bear Flag, Tweezers Top, Fibonacci Break DownTrend (0%), and multiple indicator crossovers (BOP Zero Cross Down, STOCHF KD Cross Down, KAMA Retreat Down, SMA Retreat Down, HT PHASOR Inphase Cross Up)—points to sustained selling pressure. Trend alignment across timeframes is consistent: all timeframes from 15m to 1d are bearish, with the strongest trends on 2H, 4H, and 8H (4/5), reinforcing the validity of the downside move. The nearest support at 155.22400 is the immediate downside target, while resistance at 163.94700 caps any bounce. The combination of a bearish chart pattern, a Fibonacci breakdown, and bearish momentum indicators suggests the market is in a strong downtrend that could continue.
Traders should watch for a break below the support level to confirm further downside, but also remain cautious of a potential pullback toward resistance if the trend stalls. The high probability and strong trend scores across multiple timeframes increase confidence in the bearish outlook. However, the market is always subject to reversals, so monitoring the invalidation level and any shift in momentum is crucial. The signal is robust, but prudent risk management remains essential.
Traders should watch for a break below the support level to confirm further downside, but also remain cautious of a potential pullback toward resistance if the trend stalls. The high probability and strong trend scores across multiple timeframes increase confidence in the bearish outlook. However, the market is always subject to reversals, so monitoring the invalidation level and any shift in momentum is crucial. The signal is robust, but prudent risk management remains essential.
Catalysts
- ▼ Trend alignment across all timeframes (15m to 1d) supports the bearish direction.
- ▼ Confluence of multiple signal types: chart pattern, candlestick, Fibonacci, and indicators.
- ▼ Fibonacci Break DownTrend at 0% indicates a breakdown of a key retracement level.
- ▼ Strong trend scores (4/5) on 2H, 4H, and 8H reinforce the momentum.
Risk Factors
- ▲ If price breaks above the nearest resistance at 163.94700, the bearish setup is invalidated.
- ▲ The 1H timeframe shows a choppy/sideways trend, which could indicate short-term consolidation before continuation.
- ▲ Momentum indicators could fade if the market enters a correction, leading to a pullback.
- ▲ Watch for a bullish reversal candlestick pattern near support that could signal a bounce.
Symbol
USD/JPY
Timeframe
4H
Direction
SELL
Probability
91%
Strength
VERY STRONG
Date
2026-08-05 00:00
cat_ Forex
Forex
Support & Resistance
| Level | Price | Formed |
|---|---|---|
| R1 | 163.94700 | 2026-07-28 |
| R2 | 163.98400 | 2026-07-23 |
| S1 | 155.22400 | 2026-08-03 |