USD/JPY – 4H – BUY

2026-08-12 16:00 UTC · 52 minutes ago

BUY

90%

▲ BUY

VERY STRONG

Swing

Prognose: 36% historisch

▲ Bullish 90% (13.47) ▼ Bearish 10% (1.58)

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Signal evolution

Events for USD/JPY

Full calendar

23:50TodayJPYPPI YoY (Jul)●●●Forecast 7.4%Previous 7.1%in 2h
23:50TodayJPYPPI MoM (Jul)●●●Forecast 0.6%Previous 0.4%in 2h
12:15TomorrowUSDFed Hammack Speech●●○in 15h

All times UTC.

Signals Fired

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▲	MOM Zero Cross Up	indicator	1.87
▲	ROC Zero Cross Up	indicator	1.87
▲	ROCR Cross Up	indicator	1.87
▲	Trendline Retreat Up	trendline	1.56
▲	SMA 50 Retreat Up	indicator	1.51
▲	KAMA Retreat Up	indicator	1.40
▲	MA Retreat Up	indicator	1.40
▲	BOP Zero Cross Up	indicator	1.18
▼	Fibonacci Break DownTrend (0%)	fibonacci	1.11
▲	STOCHF KD Cross Up	indicator	1.03
▲	CMO Zero Cross Up	indicator	1.01
▲	RSI Midline Cross Up	indicator	1.00
▲	Above The Stomach	candlestick	0.94
▼	WILLR OB Entry	indicator	0.81
▲	Closing Marubozu Bullish	candlestick	0.80

Trend Context

15M

UPTrend forming

30M

UPTrend forming

DOWNTrend forming

DOWNChoppy / sideways

DOWNSolid trend

12H

DOWNSolid trend

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

A powerful 4H bullish momentum burst with multiple oscillators crossing zero, suggesting strong buying pressure.
This is a counter-trend move against the solid bearish trends on 8H, 12H, and 1D, so treat it as a bounce unless resistance breaks.
Watch the nearest resistance at 163.94700 and support at 156.67200; a close above resistance could shift the larger trend, while a break below support invalidates the signal.
The signal's high probability and very strong strength are supported by the confluence of indicators, but the higher timeframe bearishness is a key risk.

The 4H USD/JPY signal has fired a cluster of bullish momentum oscillators (BOP, CMO, MOM, ROC, ROCR, RSI, STOCHF) all crossing above their zero or midlines, alongside a Trendline Retreat Up, indicating a strong upward push from a recent low. The confluence of these indicators suggests that buying pressure is intensifying and that the pair is attempting to reverse the broader bearish trend. However, the higher timeframes (8H, 12H, 1D) remain in solid downtrends, so this signal should be viewed as a counter-trend bounce within a larger bearish structure.

Key levels to watch are the nearest resistance at 163.94700, which is a major hurdle that could cap the rally, and the nearest support at 156.67200, which is the level to hold for the bullish case. The signal's very strong strength and high probability (89%) are supported by the alignment of multiple momentum indicators on the 4H, but the conflicting higher timeframe trends warrant caution. A break above resistance could signal a deeper reversal, while a move below support would invalidate the bullish setup.

Catalysts

▲ Multiple momentum oscillators (BOP, CMO, MOM, ROC, ROCR, RSI, STOCHF) all crossing up simultaneously on the 4H, indicating strong bullish momentum.
▲ Trendline Retreat Up pattern suggests that price has pulled back to a trendline and is now reversing upward.
▲ Signal strength is 'very strong' with an 89% probability, reflecting high confidence from the signal engine.
▲ The signal incorporates multiple groups (candlestick, trendline, fibonacci, indicator), adding to the confluence.

Risk Factors

▼ Higher timeframes (8H, 12H, 1D) are in solid bearish trends, which could overpower this 4H bounce.
▼ The 1H and 2H timeframes are also bearish, so the immediate trend is not aligned with the signal.
▼ The nearest resistance at 163.94700 is a significant barrier; failure to break it could lead to a reversal back down.
▼ If price falls below the nearest support at 156.67200, the bullish signal would be invalidated, and the downtrend could resume.