USD/JPY – 1H – BUY
BUY
95%
▲ Bullish 95% (27.47)
▼ Bearish 5% (1.32)
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Signal evolution
Events for USD/JPY
Full calendar- TodayJPYPPI YoY (Jul)●●●Forecast 7.4%Previous 7.1%in 2h
- TodayJPYPPI MoM (Jul)●●●Forecast 0.6%Previous 0.4%in 2h
- TomorrowUSDFed Hammack Speech●●○in 15h
All times UTC.
Signals Fired
| Signals Fired | Category | Weight | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ | MAMA PRICE Retreat Up | indicator | 2.44 |
| ▲ | DEMA Retreat Up | indicator | 2.33 |
| ▲ | MIDPRICE Retreat Up | indicator | 2.29 |
| ▲ | MIDPOINT Retreat Up | indicator | 2.14 |
| ▲ | EMA Retreat Up | indicator | 2.11 |
| ▲ | Fibonacci Retreat UpTrend (0%) | fibonacci | 2.11 |
| ▲ | MA Retreat Up | indicator | 2.06 |
| ▲ | HT TRENDLINE Retreat Up | indicator | 2.05 |
| ▲ | KAMA Retreat Up | indicator | 1.96 |
| ▲ | CCI OB Exit | indicator | 1.90 |
| ▲ | BOP Zero Cross Up | indicator | 1.83 |
| ▼ | STOCH KD Cross Down | indicator | 1.32 |
| ▲ | Takuri Line | candlestick | 1.06 |
| ▲ | Dragonfly Doji | candlestick | 0.99 |
Trend Context
15MUPTrend forming
30MUPTrend forming
1HDOWNTrend forming
2HDOWNChoppy / sideways
4HDOWNChoppy / sideways
8HDOWNSolid trend
12HDOWNSolid trend
1DDOWNSolid trend
Analysis
🎯 Key Takeaways
- Strong bullish signals on the 1H timeframe suggest a potential short-term bounce, but the broader trend is bearish.
- Key support at 158.58100 is the line in the sand; a break below invalidates the bullish case.
- Higher timeframes (4H to 1D) are bearish, so any upside may be corrective.
- The cluster of moving average retreats and momentum signals adds confluence to the bullish outlook.
The USD/JPY 1H signal is strongly bullish (95% probability, very strong) with a cluster of indicator signals including BOP Zero Cross Up, CCI OB Exit, and multiple moving average retreats (DEMA, EMA, HT TRENDLINE, KAMA, MA). These signals suggest a short-term upward correction within a broader bearish trend. The higher timeframes (4H to 1D) remain bearish, with solid trends on 8H, 12H, and 1D, while the 15M and 30M are turning bullish, indicating a potential momentum shift at the lower end.
The immediate support at 158.58100 is critical; holding above this level could validate the bullish signal and allow a bounce. However, the lack of a defined resistance level above suggests that any upside may be limited by the prevailing downtrend. The conflicting higher timeframe trends (bearish) and the 1H being still bearish on the trend table create a cautionary backdrop. Traders should watch for a break below 158.58100, which would invalidate the bullish setup and likely resume the broader bearish momentum.
The immediate support at 158.58100 is critical; holding above this level could validate the bullish signal and allow a bounce. However, the lack of a defined resistance level above suggests that any upside may be limited by the prevailing downtrend. The conflicting higher timeframe trends (bearish) and the 1H being still bearish on the trend table create a cautionary backdrop. Traders should watch for a break below 158.58100, which would invalidate the bullish setup and likely resume the broader bearish momentum.
Catalysts
- ▲ Multiple indicator signals (BOP, CCI, STOCH, DEMA, EMA, HT TRENDLINE, KAMA, MA) all align in the bullish direction.
- ▲ 15M and 30M timeframes are turning bullish, suggesting early momentum shift.
- ▲ Support at 158.58100 is well-defined and could act as a launchpad for a bounce.
- ▲ High probability (95%) and very strong signal strength increase confidence in the short-term move.
Risk Factors
- ▼ Higher timeframes (4H to 1D) are bearish, with solid trends, which could overpower the 1H bullish signal.
- ▼ The 1H trend is still bearish on the trend table, indicating conflicting signals within the same timeframe.
- ▼ No clear resistance level above means the upside may be capped by the prevailing downtrend.
- ▼ A break below 158.58100 would invalidate the bullish setup and likely accelerate the bearish move.
Symbol
USD/JPY
Timeframe
1H
Direction
BUY
Probability
95%
Strength
VERY STRONG
Date
2026-08-12 22:00
cat_ Forex
Forex
Support & Resistance
| Level | Price | Formed |
|---|---|---|
| S1 | 158.58100 | 2026-08-12 |
| S2 | 156.67200 | 2026-08-07 |
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