EUR/USD – 1H – SELL

2026-08-14 04:00 UTC · 1 day ago

SELL

100%

▼ SELL

VERY STRONG

Intraday

Prognose: 61% historisch

⚡ Confluence +45%

▲ Bullish 0% (0.00) ▼ Bearish 100% (17.12)

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Signal evolution

Events for EUR/USD

Full calendar

12:30August 17, 2026USDNY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Aug)●●○Forecast 12Previous 15.6in 1 day
14:00August 17, 2026USDNAHB Housing Market Index (Aug)●●○Forecast 34Previous 34in 1 day
20:00August 17, 2026USDNet Long-term TIC Flows (Jun)●●○Previous 232.7in 2 days

All times UTC.

Signals Fired

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▼	Trendline Retreat Down	trendline	2.01
▼	Fibonacci Break DownTrend (0%)	fibonacci	2.00
▼	Resistance Level Retreat Down	sr	1.92
▼	STOCHF KD Cross Down	indicator	1.57
▲	MOM Zero Cross Up	indicator	1.54
▲	ROC Zero Cross Up	indicator	1.54
▲	ROCR Cross Up	indicator	1.54
▲	HT SINE Zero Cross Up	indicator	1.49
▼	BOP Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.46
▼	Tweezers Top	candlestick	1.08

Trend Context

15M

UPTrend forming

30M

UPChoppy / sideways

12H

UPTrend forming

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

The 1H signal is bearish, but the higher timeframe trend is bullish, creating a counter-trend situation.
Key levels: support at 1.15114 and resistance at 1.15451 are critical for direction.
Momentum indicators (STOCHF, BOP) are turning down, supporting short-term downside.
A Fibonacci break down suggests potential for a deeper pullback, but confirmation is needed.

The EUR/USD 1H signal is a SELL, driven by a confluence of bearish triggers: a Trendline Retreat Down, BOP Zero Cross Down, STOCHF KD Cross Down, and a Fibonacci Break DownTrend (0%) alongside candlestick and support/resistance signals. Despite the longer-term bullish trend across timeframes (from 15m to 1d), the 1H momentum is turning bearish, with the STOCHF cross confirming short-term downside pressure. The Fibonacci break below the 0% level suggests a potential deeper retracement, while the Trendline Retreat Down indicates a rejection from a descending trendline, adding to the bearish case.

However, the bullish alignment on higher timeframes (all timeframes show bullish bias, albeit choppy) creates a conflict. The 1H signal is a counter-trend sell, which lowers its reliability. The nearest support at 1.15114 is a key level to watch; a break below could accelerate the decline, while a hold might lead to a bounce. Resistance at 1.15451 is the immediate hurdle for any upside recovery. Traders should monitor these levels for confirmation or invalidation.

Catalysts

▼ Multiple bearish signals converge on the 1H timeframe (trendline, BOP, STOCHF, Fibonacci).
▼ STOCHF KD Cross Down indicates short-term momentum shift to bearish.
▼ Fibonacci Break DownTrend (0%) suggests a breakdown of a key level.
▼ The signal probability is 72%, indicating a moderate-to-high confidence in the setup.

Risk Factors

▲ The higher timeframe trend is bullish, which could override the 1H bearish signal.
▲ The signal strength is moderate, not strong, so the move may lack momentum.
▲ A hold above support at 1.15114 could lead to a bounce, invalidating the bearish setup.
▲ Choppy price action on multiple timeframes suggests indecision, increasing the chance of false signals.