USD/CAD – 4H – SELL
SELL
95%
▲ Bullish 5% (2.43)
▼ Bearish 95% (46.89)
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Signal evolution
Events for USD/CAD
Full calendar- August 17, 2026CADCore Inflation Rate MoM (Jul)●●●Forecast 0.1%Previous 0.1%in 2 days
- August 17, 2026CADInflation Rate MoM (Jul)●●●Forecast 0.1%Previous -0.4%in 2 days
- August 17, 2026CADInflation Rate YoY (Jul)●●●Forecast 2.6%Previous 2.8%in 2 days
All times UTC.
Signals Fired
| Signals Fired | Category | Weight | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ▼ | Rectangle | chart_pattern | 4.08 |
| ▼ | MIDPOINT Break Down | indicator | 3.07 |
| ▼ | MAMA PRICE Break Down | indicator | 2.91 |
| ▼ | MIDPRICE Break Down | indicator | 2.84 |
| ▼ | Trendline Break Down | trendline | 2.78 |
| ▼ | DEMA Break Down | indicator | 2.54 |
| ▼ | HT TRENDLINE Retreat Down | indicator | 1.72 |
| ▲ | RSI OS Entry | indicator | 1.57 |
| ▼ | SMA Retreat Down | indicator | 1.54 |
| ▼ | EMA Retreat Down | indicator | 1.53 |
| ▼ | MA Retreat Down | indicator | 1.25 |
| ▼ | HT SINE Zero Cross Down | indicator | 1.24 |
| ▼ | KAMA Retreat Down | indicator | 1.23 |
| ▲ | STOCH KD Cross Up | indicator | 0.87 |
Trend Context
15MDOWNExtremely strong trend
30MDOWNExtremely strong trend
1HDOWNVery strong trend
2HDOWNTrend forming
4HDOWNSolid trend
8HDOWNSolid trend
12HDOWNTrend forming
1DDOWNTrend forming
Analysis
🎯 Key Takeaways
- Strong bearish signal on USD/CAD 4H with multiple confirmations.
- All timeframes align bearish, supporting the downtrend.
- Key resistance at 1.40799 is the level to watch for a potential bounce.
- Oversold conditions may trigger a short-term pullback, but trend remains down.
The USD/CAD 4H signal has fired a SELL with very strong probability (95%), driven by a confluence of bearish signals. A Trendline Break Down and Rectangle pattern breakdown confirm a bearish continuation, while the DEMA Break Down, EMA Retreat Down, HT TRENDLINE Retreat Down, and KAMA Retreat Down all align to the downside. The RSI OS Entry suggests the market may be oversold, but the STOCH KD Cross Up hints at a potential short-term bounce; however, the overall momentum remains firmly bearish.
Across timeframes, the trend is consistently bearish, with extremely strong trends on the 15m and 30m (5/5), very strong on the 1h (4/5), and solid on the 4H and 8H (3/5). This alignment supports the continuation of the downtrend. The nearest resistance is at 1.40799, which now acts as a key barrier for any upside correction. With no immediate support defined, the downside could be open, but traders should watch for any reversal signals near the resistance or a break back above it, which would invalidate the bearish setup.
Across timeframes, the trend is consistently bearish, with extremely strong trends on the 15m and 30m (5/5), very strong on the 1h (4/5), and solid on the 4H and 8H (3/5). This alignment supports the continuation of the downtrend. The nearest resistance is at 1.40799, which now acts as a key barrier for any upside correction. With no immediate support defined, the downside could be open, but traders should watch for any reversal signals near the resistance or a break back above it, which would invalidate the bearish setup.
Catalysts
- ▼ Confluence of trendline break, rectangle breakdown, and multiple moving average retreats.
- ▼ Strong trend alignment across all timeframes, with extremely strong on lower timeframes.
- ▼ High probability (95%) and very strong signal strength.
Risk Factors
- ▲ RSI oversold and STOCH cross up could lead to a temporary bounce.
- ▲ No defined support level, making downside targets unclear.
- ▲ If price breaks above 1.40799, the bearish setup is invalidated.
- ▲ Lower timeframe momentum may be stretched, increasing pullback risk.
Symbol
USD/CAD
Timeframe
4H
Direction
SELL
Probability
95%
Strength
VERY STRONG
Date
2026-08-14 12:00
cat_ Forex
Forex
Support & Resistance
| Level | Price | Formed |
|---|---|---|
| R1 | 1.40799 | 2026-08-04 |
| R2 | 1.41286 | 2026-07-28 |
| R3 | 1.42385 | 2026-07-06 |
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