USD/JPY – 12H – SELL
SELL
64%
▲ Bullish 36% (6.16)
▼ Bearish 64% (11.10)
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Signal evolution
Signals Fired
| Signals Fired | Category | Weight | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ | Fibonacci Break UpTrend (24%) | fibonacci | 2.51 |
| ▼ | Bear Flag | chart_pattern | 2.50 |
| ▼ | Trendline Break Down | trendline | 2.36 |
| ▼ | EMA CROSS 50 200 Death Cross | indicator | 2.18 |
| ▲ | CCI OS Exit | indicator | 1.75 |
| ▲ | HT PHASOR Inphase Cross Up | indicator | 1.67 |
Trend Context
15MDOWNChoppy / sideways
30MDOWNChoppy / sideways
1HDOWNChoppy / sideways
2HUPTrend forming
4HDOWNSolid trend
8HDOWNSolid trend
12HDOWNSolid trend
1DDOWNSolid trend
Analysis
🎯 Key Takeaways
- Multiple bearish signals (Trendline Break Down, Bear Flag, Death Cross) align with a solid downtrend across higher timeframes (4H to 1D).
- The nearest support at 155.224 is the key level to watch; a break below it would confirm further downside.
- Short-term indicators (CCI OS Exit, HT Phasor Inphase Cross Up) hint at a possible oversold bounce, but the overall trend remains bearish.
- Resistance at 163.984 is the invalidation level; a move above it would negate the bearish setup.
The USD/JPY 12H chart has triggered a cluster of bearish signals, including a Trendline Break Down, a Bear Flag pattern, and a Death Cross (EMA 50/200), all aligning with a solid bearish trend across the 4H, 8H, 12H, and 1D timeframes. The CCI OS Exit suggests a short-term oversold bounce may be underway, but the HT Phasor Inphase Cross Up indicates a potential short-term bullish phase within the larger downtrend. The Fibonacci Break UpTrend (24%) signals a retracement that has broken above a key Fibonacci level, but the overall bearish structure remains intact.
Key levels to watch are the nearest resistance at 163.984 and support at 155.224. A break below the support would confirm continued downside, while a move above resistance would invalidate the bearish setup. The confluence of multiple bearish signals across timeframes strengthens the case for continued selling, but the weak signal strength and the short-term bullish indicators warrant caution. Traders should watch for a potential bounce at support or a decisive break below it to confirm the next leg lower.
Key levels to watch are the nearest resistance at 163.984 and support at 155.224. A break below the support would confirm continued downside, while a move above resistance would invalidate the bearish setup. The confluence of multiple bearish signals across timeframes strengthens the case for continued selling, but the weak signal strength and the short-term bullish indicators warrant caution. Traders should watch for a potential bounce at support or a decisive break below it to confirm the next leg lower.
Catalysts
- ▼ Strong bearish trend alignment across 4H, 8H, 12H, and 1D timeframes.
- ▼ Confluence of bearish signals: Trendline Break Down, Bear Flag, and Death Cross.
- ▼ Fibonacci Break UpTrend (24%) indicates a retracement that has not yet reversed the primary downtrend.
- ▼ The Bear Flag pattern suggests a continuation of the prior downtrend after a brief consolidation.
Risk Factors
- ▲ Weak signal strength (64% probability) and 'weak' strength rating reduce confidence.
- ▲ Short-term bullish signals (CCI OS Exit, HT Phasor Inphase Cross Up) could trigger a bounce that stalls the decline.
- ▲ The 2H timeframe shows a bullish trend forming, which could conflict with the larger bearish trend.
- ▲ A move above the nearest resistance at 163.984 would invalidate the bearish setup and could lead to a reversal.
Symbol
USD/JPY
Timeframe
12H
Direction
SELL
Probability
64%
Strength
WEAK
Date
2026-08-20 12:00
cat_ Forex
Forex
Support & Resistance
| Level | Price | Formed |
|---|---|---|
| R1 | 163.98400 | 2026-07-23 |
| S1 | 155.22400 | 2026-08-03 |
| S2 | 155.03600 | 2026-05-06 |
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