AUD/JPY – 30M – SELL

SELL 2× UPDATED CLOSED

2026-08-21 08:00 UTC 30 days ago

⚠ Opened against the trend in 6 of 8 timeframes. Target hit 12.3 % vs 17.9 % average · stopped out 14.4 % vs 9.2 % (Forex, 146 closed runs). Not a reason to act — a reason to watch.

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Signal evolution

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 5× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 5× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (21 Aug 2026, 05:30 UTC, updated 2× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▲	Symmetrical Trianglestate only	chart_pattern	4.28
▼	T3 Retreat Down	indicator	1.23
▼	BOP Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.21
▼	Fibonacci Retreat DownTrend (62%)continuation	fibonacci	1.15
▼	Resistance Level Retreat Downcontinuation	sr	1.10
▼	Last Engulfing Bottom	candlestick	0.91
▼	Bearish Engulfing	candlestick	0.76
▼	Short Line Bearish	candlestick	0.74

Trend Context

15M

UPVery strong trend

30M

UPSolid trend

UPTrend forming

UPChoppy / sideways

12H

DOWNChoppy / sideways

DOWNTrend forming

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Multiple bearish signals (triangle breakdown, engulfing, T3 retreat) align on the 30m chart, pointing to a short-term sell.
The broader trend is bullish up to 1h, so this is likely a pullback rather than a full reversal.
Watch the nearest support at 113.02600; a break below it could accelerate selling.
Resistance at 113.60600 is the key invalidation level if price reclaims it.

The AUD/JPY 30-minute chart has fired a dense cluster of bearish signals, including a Symmetrical Triangle breakdown, Bearish Engulfing, and a T3 Retreat Down, all converging at a resistance level. The Fibonacci Retreat DownTrend (62%) and BOP Zero Cross Down add momentum confirmation, while the Short Line Bearish and Last Engulfing Bottom patterns reinforce the short-term selling pressure. This confluence suggests a high-probability pullback within the broader bullish trend, with the nearest support at 113.02600 as the initial downside target.

Across timeframes, the trend is bullish from 15m up to 1h, with strength tapering into the 4h and 8h where it turns choppy. The 12h and 1d timeframes are bearish, indicating that the higher timeframe trend is still tilted lower. This mixed alignment means the sell signal is likely a corrective move within a larger uptrend, but the bearish daily trend could amplify the downside if the support breaks. Key levels to watch are resistance at 113.60600 and support at 113.02600; a break below support would open the door to deeper losses, while a reclaim of resistance would invalidate the bearish setup.

Catalysts

▼ Confluence of eight bearish signals across chart pattern, candlestick, and indicator groups.
▼ Fibonacci retreat at 62% suggests a meaningful retracement level is being tested.
▼ BOP zero cross down confirms selling pressure in the session.
▼ Higher timeframe bearish bias on 12h and 1d supports the downside move.

Risk Factors

▲ The 15m and 30m trends are strongly bullish, which could overpower the bearish signals and lead to a bounce.
▲ The 4h and 8h trends are choppy/sideways, offering no clear direction and increasing the chance of false signals.
▲ If price breaks back above resistance at 113.60600, the bearish setup is invalidated.
▲ The signal strength is moderate, so the move may lack momentum and stall near support.