USD/JPY – 2H – SELL

SELL 1× UPDATED CLOSED

2026-08-21 08:00 UTC 30 days ago

Loading…

Signal evolution

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 3× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 3× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (21 Aug 2026, 08:00 UTC, updated 1× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▼	EMA 200 Retreat Down	indicator	2.35
▼	Fibonacci Retreat DownTrend (79%)continuation	fibonacci	2.23
▼	SAR Flip Bearish	indicator	2.13
▼	Trendline Break Downcontinuation	trendline	1.98
▲	WILLR OB Exit	indicator	1.93
▼	SMA 50 Retreat Down	indicator	1.85
▼	BOP Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.50
▼	Bearish Engulfing	candlestick	1.04
▼	Last Engulfing Bottom	candlestick	0.99

Trend Context

15M

DOWNChoppy / sideways

30M

DOWNChoppy / sideways

DOWNTrend forming

DOWNSolid trend

12H

DOWNSolid trend

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

A dense cluster of bearish signals (trendline break, bearish engulfing, Fibonacci retreat) confirms strong selling pressure on the 2H chart.
All timeframes from 15m to 1D are bearish, with higher timeframes showing solid trends, reinforcing the sell bias.
Watch the nearest support at 158.02100; a break below could open further downside, while resistance at 159.77400 caps any bounce.
The confluence of multiple signal types (candlestick, indicator, Fibonacci, trendline) elevates the reliability of this sell signal.

The USD/JPY 2H chart has triggered a dense cluster of bearish signals, led by a Trendline Break Down, a Bearish Engulfing candlestick, and a Fibonacci Retreat DownTrend (79% retracement). These are reinforced by momentum and trend indicators flipping bearish: the Balance of Power (BOP) crossed below zero, Williams %R exited overbought territory, the Parabolic SAR flipped bearish, and both the EMA 200 and SMA 50 are retreating downward. The confluence of these signals across candlestick, indicator, Fibonacci, and trendline groups points to a strong bearish push, with the 79% Fibonacci retracement level acting as a key pivot for sellers.

Across timeframes, the bearish trend is consistent, though it strengthens with higher timeframes: the 2H shows a forming trend (2/5), while 4H, 8H, 12H, and 1D all show solid bearish trends (3/5). This alignment supports the sell signal's high probability (94%) and very strong strength. The nearest resistance at 159.77400 is the immediate hurdle for any bounce, while the nearest support at 158.02100 is the first downside target. A break below that support would likely accelerate the decline, but until then, the pair may consolidate near current levels.

Catalysts

▼ Trend alignment across all timeframes, with higher timeframes (4H and above) showing solid bearish trends.
▼ Confluence of multiple bearish signals: Trendline Break Down, Bearish Engulfing, and Fibonacci Retreat DownTrend (79%).
▼ Momentum indicators (BOP, WILLR) and trend-following indicators (EMA 200, SMA 50, SAR) all aligned bearish.
▼ High signal probability (94%) and very strong strength rating.

Risk Factors

▲ A break back above the nearest resistance at 159.77400 would invalidate the bearish setup.
▲ The 15m to 1H trends are choppy/sideways (1/5), which could lead to short-term consolidation or a bounce before further downside.
▲ If the price fails to break below the nearest support at 158.02100, the sell signal may lose momentum, leading to a range-bound market.
▲ A sudden bullish reversal pattern or positive news catalyst could trigger a short squeeze, especially given the high short positioning.