USD/JPY – 1H – BUY

The 1H USD/JPY signal is bullish, driven by a cluster of momentum and trend-following indicators: RSI and CCI exiting oversold territory, ALMA and HMA turning up, and a break of a trendline to the upside. The presence of a Double Top pattern, however, adds a contrarian element—this pattern typically signals bearish reversal, so its inclusion in a bullish signal suggests the market may be interpreting the pattern's completion as a bullish trigger, or it may indicate a failed breakdown that could lead to a sharp bounce. The confluence of these signals points to a potential short-term upward move, with the nearest resistance at 160.389 and support at 158.877 as key levels to watch.

Across higher timeframes, the trend is predominantly bearish, with solid bearish trends on the 1H and 1D, and very strong bearish trends on the 15m and 30m. The 4H and 8H are choppy and sideways, lacking clear direction. This creates a conflicting picture: the bullish 1H signal is against the prevailing bearish momentum on multiple timeframes. The signal's high probability (76%) and strong strength suggest that the immediate momentum may be shifting, but traders should be cautious of the broader downtrend. A sustained move above the nearest resistance could signal a stronger reversal, while a break below support would invalidate the bullish setup.