USD/JPY – 1H – SELL
SELL
81%
▲ Bullish 19% (1.70)
▼ Bearish 81% (7.05)
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Signal evolution
Signals Fired
These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (14 Sep 2026, 16:00 UTC, updated 6× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
| Signals Fired | Category | Weight | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ | Trendline Break Upstate only | trendline | 2.73 |
| ▼ | HMA Break Down | indicator | 2.61 |
| ▼ | T3 Break Down | indicator | 2.52 |
| ▼ | ALMA Break Down | indicator | 2.51 |
| ▲ | STC Level Cross Up | indicator | 2.00 |
| ▼ | Fibonacci Break DownTrend (24%)continuation | fibonacci | 1.63 |
| ▼ | ERI BEAR Zero Cross Down | indicator | 1.53 |
| ▼ | DX Trend Weak | indicator | 1.41 |
| ▼ | SMI Signal Cross Down | indicator | 1.27 |
| ▼ | EMA 200 Retreat Down | indicator | 1.21 |
| ▼ | SMA 200 Retreat Down | indicator | 1.14 |
| ▼ | Resistance Level Retreat Downcontinuation | sr | 1.12 |
| ▼ | AO Saucer Bearish | indicator | 1.09 |
| ▼ | Long Line Bearish | candlestick | 1.03 |
| ▼ | ER Level Cross Down | indicator | 1.01 |
| ▼ | TTM TREND Trend Down | indicator | 0.98 |
| ▼ | HMA Direction Down | indicator | 0.97 |
| ▼ | ACCBANDS UPPER Upper Retreat | indicator | 0.76 |
Trend Context
15MDOWNSolid trend
30MUPSolid trend
1HUPTrend forming
2HUPTrend forming
4HDOWNSolid trend
8HDOWNSolid trend
12HDOWNVery strong trend
1DDOWNVery strong trend
Analysis
🎯 Key Takeaways
- A very strong bearish signal on the 1H, with 89% probability, driven by a cluster of 15+ signals including Trendline Break Up, T3 Break Down, and EMA/SMA retreats.
- Higher timeframes (12H, 1D) are in very strong downtrends, aligning with the bearish bias; lower timeframes are mixed, so expect possible pullbacks.
- Watch the nearest resistance at 154.61200 as the invalidation level; a break above it would weaken the bearish case.
- Nearest support at 153.23600 is the immediate downside target; a break below could accelerate the move.
The USD/JPY 1H signal has fired a dense cluster of bearish triggers, led by a Trendline Break Up that has resolved downward, T3 Break Down, and multiple moving-average retreats (EMA 200 and SMA 200) that confirm the loss of upside momentum. The AO Saucer Bearish and ERI BEAR Zero Cross Down add momentum and trend-strength confirmation, while the ER Level Cross Down validates a break of a key level. With 89% probability and very strong strength, the confluence of 15+ signals across trendline, support/resistance, candlestick, Fibonacci, and indicator groups points to a high-confidence bearish setup.
Across timeframes, the picture is mixed but leans bearish on the higher frames: the 12H and 1D are in very strong downtrends (4/5), and the 4H and 8H are solidly bearish (3/5). The 1H and 2H are still bullish but only trend-forming (2/5), suggesting the immediate bias is being overridden by the larger bearish structure. The 30M is bullish but solid, and the 15M is bearish, so the intraday action is choppy. Key levels to watch: nearest resistance at 154.61200 (likely the invalidation zone) and nearest support at 153.23600. A sustained break below support would open the path toward lower targets, while a reclaim of resistance would negate the bearish signal.
Across timeframes, the picture is mixed but leans bearish on the higher frames: the 12H and 1D are in very strong downtrends (4/5), and the 4H and 8H are solidly bearish (3/5). The 1H and 2H are still bullish but only trend-forming (2/5), suggesting the immediate bias is being overridden by the larger bearish structure. The 30M is bullish but solid, and the 15M is bearish, so the intraday action is choppy. Key levels to watch: nearest resistance at 154.61200 (likely the invalidation zone) and nearest support at 153.23600. A sustained break below support would open the path toward lower targets, while a reclaim of resistance would negate the bearish signal.
Catalysts
- ▼ Strong trend alignment on higher timeframes (12H and 1D both very strong bearish, 4H and 8H solid bearish) supports the bearish direction.
- ▼ Confluence of multiple signal groups (trendline, SR, candlestick, Fibonacci, indicator) increases the reliability of the signal.
- ▼ The AO Saucer Bearish and ERI BEAR Zero Cross Down confirm bearish momentum, while the ER Level Cross Down validates a break of a key level.
- ▼ The 1H signal strength is very strong with 89% probability, indicating high conviction in the setup.
Risk Factors
- ▲ The 1H and 2H timeframes are still bullish (trend forming), which could lead to a bounce or consolidation before the bearish move continues.
- ▲ The 30M timeframe is bullish, suggesting short-term counter-trend pressure that might delay the signal.
- ▲ A break above the nearest resistance at 154.61200 would invalidate the bearish setup and could trigger a short squeeze.
- ▲ If the price fails to break below the nearest support at 153.23600, the bearish momentum may fade, leading to a range-bound market.
Symbol
USD/JPY
Timeframe
1H
Direction
SELL
Probability
81%
Strength
STRONG
Date
2026-09-14 18:00
cat_ Forex
Forex
Support & Resistance
| Level | Price | Formed |
|---|---|---|
| R1 | 154.61200 | 2026-09-11 |
| R2 | 154.66400 | 2026-09-10 |
| R3 | 156.74700 | 2026-09-04 |
| S1 | 153.23600 | 2026-09-11 |
| S2 | 152.94000 | 2026-09-09 |
| S3 | 152.88300 | 2026-09-08 |