USD/JPY – 4H – SELL

SELL NEW

2026-09-17 12:00 UTC 18 hours ago

35.3 % – zur Vorkerze

WEAK ⚡ Confluence +3% Swing

▲ Bullish 15 % (2.61) ▼ Bearish 85 % (15.33)

5 of 10 signals like this one ended in profit

45.5% of closed signals in this class ended above zero

model score 4.1 — ranks this signal within its class, it is not a probability; the figure above is the measured frequency (1318 closed runs, 2026-09-18)

Überzeugung · 5 Kerzen

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Signal evolution

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 3× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 3× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (17 Sep 2026, 16:00 UTC). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
This signal is still open and is being tracked candle by candle on this page until it closes.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▲	EMA CROSS 20 50 Golden Cross	indicator	2.61
▼	T3 Break Down	indicator	2.31
▼	ALMA Break Down	indicator	1.98
▼	HMA Retreat Down	indicator	1.83
▼	SAR Flip Bearish	indicator	1.82
▼	HMA Direction Down	indicator	1.36
▼	TTM TREND Trend Down	indicator	1.36
▼	ERI BEAR Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.35
▼	Spinning Top Bearish	candlestick	0.91

Trend Context

15M

UPChoppy / sideways

30M

DOWNChoppy / sideways

DOWNTrend forming

UPTrend forming

12H

DOWNSolid trend

DOWNVery strong trend

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Strong bearish signal on 4H with 85% probability, backed by multiple trend indicators.
Higher timeframes (12H, 1D) are bearish, aligning with the sell direction.
Watch nearest support at 153.23600; a break could open further downside.
Resistance at 160.38900 is the key invalidation level for the bearish setup.

The 4H SELL signal on USD/JPY is fired by a dense cluster of bearish indicators, including a SAR Flip Bearish, T3 Break Down, ERI BEAR Zero Cross Down, ALMA Break Down, HMA Retreat Down, and TTM TREND Trend Down. Despite the EMA Cross 20 50 Golden Cross (a bullish signal) being present, the overwhelming bearish alignment from multiple trend-following tools suggests sellers are in control on the 4H timeframe. The signal is rated very strong with 85% probability, indicating high confluence among the indicators.

Across timeframes, the picture is mixed but leans bearish. The 15m to 2h timeframes are mostly bearish or choppy, with the 2h showing a forming trend. The 4H and 8H are still bullish but only trend forming, suggesting the bearish move is counter-trend on those frames. However, the 12H and 1D are bearish with solid to very strong trends, which supports the sell signal from a higher-timeframe perspective. Key levels to watch: nearest resistance at 160.38900 and nearest support at 153.23600. A break below support could accelerate downside, while a reclaim of resistance would invalidate the bearish setup.

Catalysts

▼ Multiple bearish signals firing simultaneously (SAR Flip, T3 Break Down, ERI Zero Cross, ALMA Break Down, HMA Retreat, TTM Trend Down) indicate strong momentum.
▼ Higher timeframe trends (12H and 1D) are bearish, providing alignment for the sell.
▼ The signal is rated very strong with 85% probability, reflecting high indicator confluence.
▼ The 2H trend is forming bearish, suggesting the bearish momentum is building.

Risk Factors

▲ The 4H and 8H timeframes are still bullish (trend forming), which could lead to counter-trend pullbacks.
▲ The EMA Golden Cross is a bullish signal that could undermine the bearish case if price starts rising.
▲ If price reclaims the 160.38900 resistance, the bearish setup would be invalidated.
▲ Choppy/sideways conditions on lower timeframes (15m-1h) may cause whipsaws and false breakouts.