USD/JPY – 8H – BUY

BUY 16× UPDATED

2026-09-17 16:00 UTC 8 days ago

59.3 % – zur Vorkerze

VERY STRONG ⚡ Confluence +2% Swing

▲ Bullish 90 % (25.36) ▼ Bearish 10 % (2.79)

5 of 10 signals like this one ended in profit

50.4% of closed signals in this class ended above zero

model score 90.1 — ranks this signal within its class, it is not a probability; the figure above is the measured frequency (1318 closed runs, 2026-09-18)

Überzeugung · 6 Kerzen

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Signal evolution

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 1× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 1× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (18 Sep 2026, 00:00 UTC, updated 16× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
This signal is still open and is being tracked candle by candle on this page until it closes.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▲	MIDPOINT Retreat Up	indicator	2.86
▲	EMA Retreat Up	indicator	2.79
▲	TEMA Retreat Up	indicator	2.65
▲	STOCHF KD Cross Up	indicator	2.19
▲	BOP Zero Cross Up	indicator	1.90
▼	ER Level Cross Down	indicator	1.55
▲	Bullish Harami	candlestick	1.25
▼	HMA Direction Down	indicator	0.90
▼	WILLR OB Entry	indicator	0.86
▲	Above The Stomach	candlestick	0.76

Trend Context

15M

UPChoppy / sideways

30M

UPChoppy / sideways

UPTrend forming

12H

DOWNSolid trend

DOWNVery strong trend

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Multiple momentum and moving-average indicators align for a bullish move on the 8H chart.
The 4H and 8H trends are forming bullish, but the 12H and 1D remain bearish, so this is a counter-trend rally.
Watch the 160.389 resistance; a break above could confirm the bullish momentum.
A close below 152.883 support would invalidate the bullish signal.

The USD/JPY 8H signal is a confluence of momentum and mean-reversion indicators, all pointing to a bullish push. The BOP Zero Cross Up and STOCHF KD Cross Up signal improving buying pressure, while the WILLR OB Entry indicates the market is entering overbought territory, which in a strong uptrend can signal continued momentum rather than exhaustion. The EMA, MIDPOINT, and TEMA Retreat Up patterns suggest that price pulled back to key moving averages and is now bouncing higher, a classic continuation setup. The ER Level Cross Down and HMA Direction Down add to the picture of a short-term pullback within a broader bullish move.

Across timeframes, the trend is bullish from 15m up to 8H, with the 4H and 8H showing a forming trend (score 2/5). However, the 12H and 1D are bearish, with the 1D showing a very strong downtrend (4/5). This creates a potential conflict; the bullish signals are firing on the lower timeframes, but the higher timeframes suggest the larger trend is still down. The nearest resistance at 160.389 is a key level to watch; a break above could open the door to further upside. Support at 152.883 is the invalidation level below which the bullish setup would be negated.

Catalysts

▲ Strong confluence of indicators: BOP, STOCHF, WILLR, and multiple moving-average retreats all point to buying pressure.
▲ Bullish trend alignment from 15m up to 8H supports the move.
▲ Price bouncing off key moving averages (EMA, MIDPOINT, TEMA) suggests strong support.
▲ Very strong signal strength (86% probability) adds confidence.

Risk Factors

▼ Higher timeframe trend (12H and 1D) is bearish, which could cap upside and lead to a reversal.
▼ The 1D very strong downtrend (4/5) is a major headwind.
▼ If the 160.389 resistance holds, the bullish move may fade.
▼ A drop below 152.883 support would invalidate the setup.