AUD/JPY – 30M – SELL

SELL 10× UPDATED

2026-09-18 14:30 UTC 17 hours ago

35.3 % ↓ −25.7 zur Vorkerze

WEAK ⚡ Confluence +3% Scalping

▲ Bullish 5 % (0.99) ▼ Bearish 95 % (17.32)

6 of 10 signals like this one ended in profit

56.1% of closed signals in this class ended above zero

model score 14.0 — ranks this signal within its class, it is not a probability; the figure above is the measured frequency (1318 closed runs, 2026-09-18)

Überzeugung · 16 Kerzen

⚠ Opened against the trend in 7 of 8 timeframes. Target hit 4.2 % vs 17.9 % average · stopped out 10.5 % vs 9.0 % (Forex, 95 closed runs). Not a reason to act — a reason to watch.

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Signal evolution

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 5× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 5× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (18 Sep 2026, 12:00 UTC, updated 10× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
This signal is still open and is being tracked candle by candle on this page until it closes.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▼	MACD Signal Cross Down	indicator	1.86
▲	ER Level Cross Up	indicator	1.65
▼	HMA Retreat Down	indicator	1.65
▼	ALMA Retreat Down	indicator	1.60
▼	DEMA Retreat Down	indicator	1.40
▲	Takuri Line	candlestick	1.37
▼	BOP Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.35
▲	Dragonfly Doji	candlestick	1.34

Trend Context

15M

UPTrend forming

30M

UPSolid trend

UPTrend forming

UPSolid trend

12H

UPSolid trend

DOWNSolid trend

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Multiple bearish signals on the 30-minute chart point to a short-term pullback, but the broader trend is bullish.
The confluence of moving-average retreats and MACD cross down strengthens the bearish case for the immediate term.
Watch the 110.81500 support level; a break below could signal a deeper correction.
The daily bearish trend is the only counterweight to the otherwise bullish multi-timeframe alignment.

The 30-minute chart for AUD/JPY is flashing a cluster of bearish signals, including a BOP Zero Cross Down, MACD Signal Cross Down, DEMA Retreat Down, ER Level Cross Up, ALMA Retreat Down, HMA Retreat Down, and two bearish candlestick patterns (Dragonfly Doji and Takuri Line). These indicators collectively suggest that selling pressure is building and that the recent upward momentum is stalling. The confluence of multiple moving-average retreats and the MACD cross down point to a short-term pullback, while the candlestick patterns hint at a potential reversal from the recent highs.

However, the broader trend across timeframes is predominantly bullish, with solid bullish trends on the 30-minute, 1-hour, 4-hour, 8-hour, and 12-hour charts. Only the daily timeframe is bearish, which adds a layer of complexity. This suggests that the bearish signal is likely a counter-trend move within a larger uptrend, making the downside potential limited. The nearest support is at 110.81500, a level that could act as a pivot for the pullback. If this support holds, the bullish trend may resume; a break below could open the door to further declines.

Catalysts

▼ Confluence of several indicator signals (BOP, MACD, DEMA, ER, ALMA, HMA) all pointing down.
▼ Bearish candlestick patterns (Dragonfly Doji and Takuri Line) add weight to the reversal scenario.
▼ The daily timeframe is bearish, providing a higher-timeframe backdrop that supports a pullback.
▼ The signal fired at 63% probability, suggesting moderate confidence in the short-term move.

Risk Factors

▲ The bullish trend across most timeframes could overwhelm the bearish signal, limiting downside.
▲ If price holds above the 110.81500 support, the pullback may be shallow and the bullish trend could resume.
▲ The signal strength is weak, indicating that the bearish momentum may not be sustained.
▲ A break above the recent highs would invalidate the bearish setup and signal a continuation of the uptrend.