EUR/AUD – 8H – BUY

BUY NEW

2026-09-18 16:00 UTC 16 hours ago

35.3 % – zur Vorkerze

WEAK Swing

▲ Bullish 84 % (7.82) ▼ Bearish 16 % (1.52)

5 of 10 signals like this one ended in profit

50.7% of closed signals in this class ended above zero

model score 5.2 — ranks this signal within its class, it is not a probability; the figure above is the measured frequency (1318 closed runs, 2026-09-18)

Überzeugung · 3 Kerzen

⚠ Opened against the trend in 5 of 8 timeframes. Target hit 10.5 % vs 17.1 % average · stopped out 12.2 % vs 9.1 % (Forex, 172 closed runs). Not a reason to act — a reason to watch.

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Signal evolution

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 2× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 2× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (21 Sep 2026, 00:00 UTC). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
This signal is still open and is being tracked candle by candle on this page until it closes.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▲	CCI OS Exit	indicator	2.22
▲	HMA Retreat Up	indicator	1.93
▲	BBANDS LOWER Retreat Up	indicator	1.89
▼	HT PHASOR Inphase Cross Down	indicator	1.52
▲	Long Legged Doji	candlestick	0.83

Trend Context

15M

UPChoppy / sideways

30M

UPChoppy / sideways

DOWNTrend forming

12H

DOWNChoppy / sideways

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Bullish signals fired on the 8H chart, but they are against the prevailing bearish trend on higher timeframes.
The bounce is likely corrective; watch the 1.62266 resistance for potential upside continuation.
Support at 1.60802 is the key invalidation level; a break below would negate the bullish signals.
Mixed timeframes suggest caution: lower timeframes are bullish but choppy, while higher timeframes remain bearish.

The EUR/AUD 8H chart has triggered a cluster of bullish signals, including a CCI oversold exit, a retreat upward from the lower Bollinger Band, a downward cross in the HT Phasor inphase, an HMA retreat upward, and a Long Legged Doji candlestick. These signals collectively suggest that selling pressure is exhausting and that a short-term bounce is likely from the oversold conditions near the lower band. The Long Legged Doji indicates indecision, often preceding a reversal, while the CCI exit from oversold territory and the HMA retreat confirm upward momentum is beginning to build.

However, the broader trend across higher timeframes remains bearish, with the 2H, 4H, and 8H charts all showing bearish trends forming, while lower timeframes (15m to 1H) are bullish but choppy. This mixed alignment suggests that the bullish signals are likely a corrective bounce within a larger downtrend rather than a full reversal. The nearest resistance at 1.62266 is a critical level to watch; a break above it could signal a stronger recovery, while failure to hold above support at 1.60802 would invalidate the bullish setup. Traders should treat this as a counter-trend opportunity with tight risk management.

Catalysts

▲ Multiple indicators converge on a bullish reversal from oversold conditions (CCI OS exit, lower Bollinger retreat).
▲ The Long Legged Doji candlestick adds weight to a potential reversal.
▲ Momentum indicators (HMA retreat, HT Phasor cross) are turning upward, supporting a short-term bounce.
▲ The 8H chart shows strong signal strength (83% probability) for the bullish move.

Risk Factors

▼ Higher timeframes (2H, 4H, 8H) are bearish, which could cap any upside and lead to a resumption of the downtrend.
▼ The bullish signals are occurring in a choppy, sideways environment on lower timeframes, reducing reliability.
▼ A break below the nearest support at 1.60802 would invalidate the bullish setup and likely lead to further losses.
▼ Resistance at 1.62266 is nearby and may act as a strong barrier, limiting upside potential.